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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston3.75+7.20vs Predicted
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2Boston College3.35+7.97vs Predicted
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3Yale University4.24+3.14vs Predicted
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4Stanford University3.56+4.66vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College3.56+3.73vs Predicted
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6Harvard University3.12+4.77vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University2.89+4.67vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.37+1.54vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+0.46vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy3.30+0.16vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University3.23-0.63vs Predicted
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12Brown University3.48-2.46vs Predicted
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13U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20-2.79vs Predicted
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14Tufts University3.14-3.72vs Predicted
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15Dartmouth College3.53-6.13vs Predicted
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16Boston University2.97-4.55vs Predicted
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17Georgetown University3.81-9.14vs Predicted
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18Jacksonville University3.43-8.87vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.2College of Charleston3.750.1%1st Place
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9.97Boston College3.350.0%1st Place
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6.14Yale University4.240.1%1st Place
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8.66Stanford University3.560.1%1st Place
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8.73Bowdoin College3.560.1%1st Place
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10.77Harvard University3.120.0%1st Place
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11.67Old Dominion University2.890.0%1st Place
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9.54Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.370.1%1st Place
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9.46Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.0%1st Place
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10.16U. S. Naval Academy3.300.1%1st Place
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10.37Roger Williams University3.230.1%1st Place
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9.54Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
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10.21U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.1%1st Place
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10.28Tufts University3.140.0%1st Place
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8.87Dartmouth College3.530.1%1st Place
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11.45Boston University2.970.0%1st Place
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7.86Georgetown University3.810.1%1st Place
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9.13Jacksonville University3.430.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Augie Dale | 6.2% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.9% |
| Wade Waddell | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.0% |
| Nicholas Baird | 11.1% | 11.0% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Romain Screve | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 3.3% |
| Matthew Kaplan | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 3.5% |
| Eli Burnes | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 9.8% |
| Jack Elkin | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 12.5% |
| Trevor Long | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 4.9% |
| Hector Guzman | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 3.8% |
| Parker Loftus | 5.7% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.3% |
| Conner Harding | 5.2% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.3% |
| Patrick Shanahan | 5.0% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.1% |
| Mack Fox | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.9% |
| Jackson McCoy | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 7.8% |
| Christopher Williford | 6.7% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 3.1% |
| Robby Gearon | 3.0% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 14.0% |
| Sean Segerblom | 8.3% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 1.1% |
| Alfonso Garcia Bringas | 5.5% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 3.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.