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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston3.75+7.20vs Predicted
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2Harvard University3.12+9.04vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+6.76vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College3.53+4.81vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University3.81+2.65vs Predicted
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6Stanford University3.56+2.82vs Predicted
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7Brown University3.48+2.11vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College3.56+0.73vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University3.23+1.23vs Predicted
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10Yale University4.24-3.84vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University2.89+0.83vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.37-2.05vs Predicted
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13U. S. Naval Academy3.30-3.24vs Predicted
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14Jacksonville University3.43-4.99vs Predicted
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15Boston College3.35-5.37vs Predicted
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16U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20-5.58vs Predicted
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17Tufts University3.14-6.24vs Predicted
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18Boston University2.97-6.86vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.2College of Charleston3.750.1%1st Place
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11.04Harvard University3.120.0%1st Place
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9.76Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.0%1st Place
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8.81Dartmouth College3.530.1%1st Place
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7.65Georgetown University3.810.1%1st Place
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8.82Stanford University3.560.1%1st Place
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9.11Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
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8.73Bowdoin College3.560.1%1st Place
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10.23Roger Williams University3.230.0%1st Place
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6.16Yale University4.240.1%1st Place
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11.83Old Dominion University2.890.0%1st Place
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9.95Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.370.0%1st Place
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9.76U. S. Naval Academy3.300.1%1st Place
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9.01Jacksonville University3.430.1%1st Place
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9.63Boston College3.350.0%1st Place
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10.42U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.0%1st Place
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10.76Tufts University3.140.0%1st Place
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11.14Boston University2.970.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Augie Dale | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.7% |
| Eli Burnes | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 8.8% |
| Hector Guzman | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 4.0% |
| Christopher Williford | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.7% |
| Sean Segerblom | 8.7% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 1.4% |
| Romain Screve | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 3.6% |
| Patrick Shanahan | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.0% |
| Matthew Kaplan | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.4% |
| Conner Harding | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 5.6% |
| Nicholas Baird | 12.7% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Jack Elkin | 4.1% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 11.5% | 15.1% |
| Trevor Long | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 6.8% |
| Parker Loftus | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.4% |
| Alfonso Garcia Bringas | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.0% |
| Wade Waddell | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 8.2% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.9% |
| Mack Fox | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 8.5% |
| Jackson McCoy | 3.9% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 2.1% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 9.2% |
| Robby Gearon | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 10.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.