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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University1.62+3.19vs Predicted
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2Boston College1.97+1.44vs Predicted
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3University of New Hampshire-0.22+6.43vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.07+1.40vs Predicted
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5University of California at Berkeley0.98+1.40vs Predicted
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6Tufts University0.43+1.48vs Predicted
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7Tufts University0.80-0.75vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College0.73-1.54vs Predicted
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9Maine Maritime Academy-0.65+1.82vs Predicted
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10The Citadel-0.41+0.55vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University0.50-3.55vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College0.17-3.83vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.69-2.64vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont-0.40-3.74vs Predicted
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15Northwestern University-1.85-1.64vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.19Harvard University1.6216.9%1st Place
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3.44Boston College1.9723.7%1st Place
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9.43University of New Hampshire-0.222.2%1st Place
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5.4U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.0711.2%1st Place
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6.4University of California at Berkeley0.987.9%1st Place
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7.48Tufts University0.435.1%1st Place
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6.25Tufts University0.808.1%1st Place
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6.46Bowdoin College0.736.5%1st Place
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10.82Maine Maritime Academy-0.651.8%1st Place
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10.55The Citadel-0.411.7%1st Place
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7.45Northeastern University0.505.3%1st Place
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8.17Dartmouth College0.174.6%1st Place
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10.36Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.692.8%1st Place
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10.26University of Vermont-0.402.1%1st Place
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13.36Northwestern University-1.850.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kate Danielson | 16.9% | 15.1% | 14.1% | 14.1% | 11.9% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Joslin | 23.7% | 19.2% | 16.5% | 12.7% | 9.4% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marykate Hanus | 2.2% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 12.0% | 9.9% | 10.9% | 3.6% |
| David Vinogradov | 11.2% | 11.0% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 8.1% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 7.9% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Patricia Winssinger | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| Grant Schmidt | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Shea McGrath | 6.5% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Griffin Stolp | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 11.3% | 14.5% | 16.7% | 12.0% |
| Henry Parker | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 10.1% | 11.7% | 13.7% | 15.1% | 9.9% |
| Carter Anderson | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 0.6% |
| Will Eggena | 4.6% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 4.0% | 1.7% |
| Zach Earnshaw | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 11.8% | 15.3% | 15.8% | 7.2% |
| William Gear | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 11.2% | 14.1% | 13.9% | 7.8% |
| Sean Bascoe | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 14.1% | 56.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.