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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston3.75+7.18vs Predicted
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2Tufts University3.14+8.93vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+6.72vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College3.53+4.79vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.37+4.54vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University3.81+1.72vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University3.23+3.22vs Predicted
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8Stanford University3.56+0.74vs Predicted
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9Jacksonville University3.43+0.29vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy3.30+0.22vs Predicted
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11U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20-0.44vs Predicted
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12Yale University4.24-5.71vs Predicted
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13Boston College3.35-3.48vs Predicted
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14Bowdoin College3.56-5.52vs Predicted
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15Harvard University3.12-4.33vs Predicted
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16Boston University2.97-4.61vs Predicted
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17Brown University3.48-7.75vs Predicted
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18Old Dominion University2.89-6.52vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.18College of Charleston3.750.1%1st Place
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10.93Tufts University3.140.0%1st Place
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9.72Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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8.79Dartmouth College3.530.1%1st Place
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9.54Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.370.1%1st Place
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7.72Georgetown University3.810.1%1st Place
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10.22Roger Williams University3.230.0%1st Place
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8.74Stanford University3.560.1%1st Place
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9.29Jacksonville University3.430.0%1st Place
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10.22U. S. Naval Academy3.300.1%1st Place
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10.56U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.0%1st Place
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6.29Yale University4.240.1%1st Place
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9.52Boston College3.350.1%1st Place
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8.48Bowdoin College3.560.1%1st Place
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10.67Harvard University3.120.0%1st Place
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11.39Boston University2.970.0%1st Place
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9.25Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
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11.48Old Dominion University2.890.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Augie Dale | 6.6% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 2.0% |
| Jackson McCoy | 3.3% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 9.1% |
| Hector Guzman | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 3.8% |
| Christopher Williford | 6.6% | 5.4% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 3.6% |
| Trevor Long | 5.4% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 5.5% |
| Sean Segerblom | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 1.7% |
| Conner Harding | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.4% |
| Romain Screve | 5.6% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 2.8% |
| Alfonso Garcia Bringas | 4.3% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 3.7% |
| Parker Loftus | 5.5% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.4% |
| Mack Fox | 4.8% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 8.9% |
| Nicholas Baird | 11.4% | 11.9% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Wade Waddell | 6.0% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.3% |
| Matthew Kaplan | 6.2% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 2.2% |
| Eli Burnes | 3.8% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 8.1% |
| Robby Gearon | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 7.0% | 10.0% | 13.0% |
| Patrick Shanahan | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 4.5% |
| Jack Elkin | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 12.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.