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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+8.72vs Predicted
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2College of Charleston3.75+6.18vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University3.23+7.54vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.37+5.50vs Predicted
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5Yale University4.24+0.97vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College3.56+2.76vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20+3.39vs Predicted
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8Jacksonville University3.43+1.23vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College3.53-0.15vs Predicted
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10Stanford University3.56-0.94vs Predicted
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11Georgetown University3.81-3.22vs Predicted
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12Tufts University3.14-0.97vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University2.89-1.46vs Predicted
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14U. S. Naval Academy3.30-4.44vs Predicted
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15Brown University3.48-5.90vs Predicted
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16Boston College3.35-6.25vs Predicted
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17Harvard University3.12-6.10vs Predicted
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18Boston University2.97-6.87vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.72Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.0%1st Place
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8.18College of Charleston3.750.1%1st Place
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10.54Roger Williams University3.230.0%1st Place
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9.5Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.370.1%1st Place
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5.97Yale University4.240.1%1st Place
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8.76Bowdoin College3.560.1%1st Place
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10.39U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.0%1st Place
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9.23Jacksonville University3.430.1%1st Place
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8.85Dartmouth College3.530.1%1st Place
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9.06Stanford University3.560.1%1st Place
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7.78Georgetown University3.810.1%1st Place
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11.03Tufts University3.140.0%1st Place
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11.54Old Dominion University2.890.0%1st Place
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9.56U. S. Naval Academy3.300.1%1st Place
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9.1Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
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9.75Boston College3.350.0%1st Place
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10.9Harvard University3.120.0%1st Place
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11.13Boston University2.970.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hector Guzman | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.5% |
| Augie Dale | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 0.9% |
| Conner Harding | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.0% |
| Trevor Long | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.5% |
| Nicholas Baird | 12.7% | 13.1% | 10.8% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| Matthew Kaplan | 6.9% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 3.3% |
| Mack Fox | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 6.4% |
| Alfonso Garcia Bringas | 5.3% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 3.5% |
| Christopher Williford | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 2.3% |
| Romain Screve | 7.0% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 2.9% |
| Sean Segerblom | 8.0% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 1.3% |
| Jackson McCoy | 3.5% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 10.3% |
| Jack Elkin | 3.6% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 10.4% | 14.0% |
| Parker Loftus | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.2% |
| Patrick Shanahan | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 3.4% |
| Wade Waddell | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.2% |
| Eli Burnes | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 10.3% |
| Robby Gearon | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 11.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.