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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.53+8.17vs Predicted
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2Yale University4.24+4.14vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College3.56+6.01vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University3.81+3.60vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+4.40vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University3.23+4.27vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.37+2.59vs Predicted
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8Jacksonville University3.43+1.25vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20+1.40vs Predicted
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10Stanford University3.56-0.92vs Predicted
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11Boston College3.35-1.15vs Predicted
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12U. S. Naval Academy3.30-1.72vs Predicted
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13Brown University3.48-3.97vs Predicted
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14Harvard University3.12-3.62vs Predicted
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15Tufts University3.14-4.44vs Predicted
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16Boston University2.97-4.57vs Predicted
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17Old Dominion University2.89-5.18vs Predicted
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18College of Charleston3.75-10.25vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.17Dartmouth College3.530.1%1st Place
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6.14Yale University4.240.1%1st Place
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9.01Bowdoin College3.560.1%1st Place
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7.6Georgetown University3.810.1%1st Place
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9.4Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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10.27Roger Williams University3.230.1%1st Place
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9.59Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.370.0%1st Place
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9.25Jacksonville University3.430.1%1st Place
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10.4U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.0%1st Place
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9.08Stanford University3.560.1%1st Place
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9.85Boston College3.350.1%1st Place
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10.28U. S. Naval Academy3.300.0%1st Place
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9.03Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
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10.38Harvard University3.120.0%1st Place
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10.56Tufts University3.140.0%1st Place
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11.43Boston University2.970.0%1st Place
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11.82Old Dominion University2.890.0%1st Place
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7.75College of Charleston3.750.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Williford | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 7.4% | 4.4% | 3.4% |
| Nicholas Baird | 10.0% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| Matthew Kaplan | 6.0% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 2.2% |
| Sean Segerblom | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.5% |
| Hector Guzman | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 3.7% |
| Conner Harding | 5.1% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.2% |
| Trevor Long | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 7.9% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.6% |
| Alfonso Garcia Bringas | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.0% |
| Mack Fox | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.2% |
| Romain Screve | 7.2% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 2.8% |
| Wade Waddell | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.6% |
| Parker Loftus | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.7% |
| Patrick Shanahan | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 3.5% |
| Eli Burnes | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 8.1% |
| Jackson McCoy | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 9.0% | 7.7% |
| Robby Gearon | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 14.0% |
| Jack Elkin | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 10.4% | 15.8% |
| Augie Dale | 7.0% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.