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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20+9.54vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College3.53+7.18vs Predicted
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3Boston University2.97+8.63vs Predicted
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4Yale University4.24+1.99vs Predicted
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5College of Charleston3.75+2.89vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University3.81+1.64vs Predicted
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7Harvard University3.14+3.65vs Predicted
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8Boston College3.35+1.54vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College3.56-0.24vs Predicted
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10Stanford University3.56-0.92vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University3.23-0.65vs Predicted
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12U. S. Naval Academy3.30-1.67vs Predicted
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13Tufts University3.14-2.53vs Predicted
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14Jacksonville University3.43-4.95vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University2.89-3.36vs Predicted
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16Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40-6.43vs Predicted
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17Brown University3.48-7.77vs Predicted
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18Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.37-8.55vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.54U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.0%1st Place
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9.18Dartmouth College3.530.1%1st Place
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11.63Boston University2.970.0%1st Place
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5.99Yale University4.240.1%1st Place
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7.89College of Charleston3.750.1%1st Place
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7.64Georgetown University3.810.1%1st Place
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10.65Harvard University3.140.0%1st Place
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9.54Boston College3.350.0%1st Place
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8.76Bowdoin College3.560.1%1st Place
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9.08Stanford University3.560.1%1st Place
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10.35Roger Williams University3.230.1%1st Place
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10.33U. S. Naval Academy3.300.0%1st Place
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10.47Tufts University3.140.1%1st Place
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9.05Jacksonville University3.430.1%1st Place
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11.64Old Dominion University2.890.0%1st Place
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9.57Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.0%1st Place
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9.23Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
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9.45Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.370.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mack Fox | 4.1% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.5% |
| Christopher Williford | 5.1% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 3.2% |
| Robby Gearon | 2.7% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 10.4% | 12.6% |
| Nicholas Baird | 11.8% | 12.3% | 12.0% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Augie Dale | 7.6% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 1.4% |
| Sean Segerblom | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 1.3% |
| Henry Marshall | 4.2% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.7% |
| Wade Waddell | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.2% |
| Matthew Kaplan | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.7% |
| Romain Screve | 7.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.0% |
| Conner Harding | 5.3% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.1% |
| Parker Loftus | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 8.0% |
| Jackson McCoy | 5.0% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 8.7% |
| Alfonso Garcia Bringas | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.0% |
| Jack Elkin | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 10.4% | 13.5% |
| Hector Guzman | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.3% |
| Patrick Shanahan | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 3.1% |
| Trevor Long | 5.0% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.