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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston College1.97+2.44vs Predicted
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2Tufts University0.80+4.45vs Predicted
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3University of New Hampshire-0.22+6.35vs Predicted
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4Bowdoin College0.73+2.49vs Predicted
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5Harvard University1.62-0.84vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University0.50+1.27vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley0.98-0.63vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College0.17+0.15vs Predicted
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9The Citadel-0.41+1.57vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont-0.40+0.10vs Predicted
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11Maine Maritime Academy-0.65-0.01vs Predicted
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12Tufts University0.43-4.44vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.69-2.50vs Predicted
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14Northwestern University-1.85-0.65vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.07-9.75vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.44Boston College1.9722.4%1st Place
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6.45Tufts University0.807.2%1st Place
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9.35University of New Hampshire-0.223.4%1st Place
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6.49Bowdoin College0.737.0%1st Place
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4.16Harvard University1.6216.8%1st Place
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7.27Northeastern University0.505.2%1st Place
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6.37University of California at Berkeley0.988.3%1st Place
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8.15Dartmouth College0.174.8%1st Place
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10.57The Citadel-0.412.2%1st Place
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10.1University of Vermont-0.401.9%1st Place
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10.99Maine Maritime Academy-0.651.8%1st Place
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7.56Tufts University0.435.2%1st Place
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10.5Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.691.8%1st Place
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13.35Northwestern University-1.850.5%1st Place
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5.25U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.0711.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Joslin | 22.4% | 20.3% | 16.6% | 11.9% | 10.4% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Grant Schmidt | 7.2% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Marykate Hanus | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 11.4% | 9.1% | 4.3% |
| Shea McGrath | 7.0% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Kate Danielson | 16.8% | 16.2% | 14.5% | 12.3% | 12.1% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carter Anderson | 5.2% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 8.3% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Will Eggena | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 1.2% |
| Henry Parker | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 11.2% | 14.1% | 17.0% | 8.8% |
| William Gear | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 11.0% | 13.6% | 12.7% | 6.8% |
| Griffin Stolp | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 12.2% | 15.9% | 18.9% | 12.0% |
| Patricia Winssinger | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 1.2% |
| Zach Earnshaw | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 12.3% | 13.8% | 15.8% | 8.3% |
| Sean Bascoe | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 7.3% | 14.8% | 56.0% |
| David Vinogradov | 11.5% | 11.6% | 11.5% | 11.7% | 11.1% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.