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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston3.75+7.20vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.48+7.38vs Predicted
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3Boston College3.35+6.94vs Predicted
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4Bowdoin College3.56+4.65vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+4.42vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University3.81+1.72vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20+3.35vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University3.23+2.11vs Predicted
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9Harvard University3.14+1.65vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.37-0.10vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy3.30-0.98vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College3.53-2.66vs Predicted
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13Tufts University3.14-2.53vs Predicted
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14Yale University4.24-8.22vs Predicted
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15Boston University2.97-3.72vs Predicted
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16Jacksonville University3.43-6.62vs Predicted
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17Old Dominion University2.89-5.18vs Predicted
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18Stanford University3.56-9.40vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.2College of Charleston3.750.1%1st Place
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9.38Brown University3.480.0%1st Place
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9.94Boston College3.350.0%1st Place
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8.65Bowdoin College3.560.1%1st Place
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9.42Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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7.72Georgetown University3.810.1%1st Place
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10.35U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.0%1st Place
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10.11Roger Williams University3.230.0%1st Place
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10.65Harvard University3.140.0%1st Place
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9.9Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.370.1%1st Place
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10.02U. S. Naval Academy3.300.1%1st Place
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9.34Dartmouth College3.530.1%1st Place
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10.47Tufts University3.140.0%1st Place
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5.78Yale University4.240.1%1st Place
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11.28Boston University2.970.0%1st Place
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9.38Jacksonville University3.430.1%1st Place
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11.82Old Dominion University2.890.0%1st Place
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8.6Stanford University3.560.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Augie Dale | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 1.5% |
| Patrick Shanahan | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 3.7% |
| Wade Waddell | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 4.6% |
| Matthew Kaplan | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.8% |
| Hector Guzman | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 5.6% |
| Sean Segerblom | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 1.6% |
| Mack Fox | 4.9% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.7% |
| Conner Harding | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 6.3% |
| Henry Marshall | 3.1% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 7.5% |
| Trevor Long | 6.0% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 4.9% |
| Parker Loftus | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.0% |
| Christopher Williford | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 4.7% |
| Jackson McCoy | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.4% |
| Nicholas Baird | 12.3% | 14.2% | 11.3% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Robby Gearon | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 7.5% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 9.5% | 12.0% |
| Alfonso Garcia Bringas | 5.0% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.6% |
| Jack Elkin | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 11.2% | 15.3% |
| Romain Screve | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 2.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.