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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College3.56+7.96vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University3.23+8.52vs Predicted
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3Yale University4.24+3.15vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20+6.31vs Predicted
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5Boston College3.35+4.62vs Predicted
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6Harvard University3.14+4.67vs Predicted
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7College of Charleston3.75+1.00vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University3.81-0.37vs Predicted
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9Stanford University3.56-0.26vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy3.30+0.18vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College3.53-1.94vs Predicted
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12Brown University3.48-2.45vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University2.89-1.50vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.37-4.73vs Predicted
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15Tufts University3.14-4.38vs Predicted
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16Jacksonville University3.43-6.58vs Predicted
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17Boston University2.97-5.50vs Predicted
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18Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40-8.69vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.96Bowdoin College3.560.1%1st Place
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10.52Roger Williams University3.230.0%1st Place
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6.15Yale University4.240.1%1st Place
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10.31U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.0%1st Place
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9.62Boston College3.350.1%1st Place
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10.67Harvard University3.140.0%1st Place
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8.0College of Charleston3.750.1%1st Place
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7.63Georgetown University3.810.1%1st Place
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8.74Stanford University3.560.1%1st Place
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10.18U. S. Naval Academy3.300.1%1st Place
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9.06Dartmouth College3.530.1%1st Place
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9.55Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
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11.5Old Dominion University2.890.0%1st Place
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9.27Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.370.1%1st Place
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10.62Tufts University3.140.0%1st Place
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9.42Jacksonville University3.430.0%1st Place
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11.5Boston University2.970.0%1st Place
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9.31Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Kaplan | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.0% |
| Conner Harding | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.9% |
| Nicholas Baird | 11.3% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Mack Fox | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.7% |
| Wade Waddell | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 5.8% |
| Henry Marshall | 4.3% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 9.1% |
| Augie Dale | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 1.5% |
| Sean Segerblom | 8.1% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 1.2% |
| Romain Screve | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.4% |
| Parker Loftus | 5.9% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.4% |
| Christopher Williford | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 3.6% |
| Patrick Shanahan | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.1% |
| Jack Elkin | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 13.0% |
| Trevor Long | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 3.8% |
| Jackson McCoy | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.9% |
| Alfonso Garcia Bringas | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.2% |
| Robby Gearon | 3.7% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 11.3% | 13.2% |
| Hector Guzman | 5.5% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.