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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston College1.97+2.43vs Predicted
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2Harvard University1.62+2.14vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.07+2.53vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont-0.40+6.08vs Predicted
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5Tufts University0.80+1.51vs Predicted
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6The Citadel-0.41+4.55vs Predicted
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7Bowdoin College0.73-0.63vs Predicted
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8Tufts University0.43-0.59vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.69+1.52vs Predicted
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10University of New Hampshire-0.22-0.65vs Predicted
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11Maine Maritime Academy-0.65-0.23vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University0.50-4.74vs Predicted
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13University of California at Berkeley0.98-6.55vs Predicted
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14Dartmouth College0.17-5.77vs Predicted
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15Northwestern University-1.85-1.61vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.43Boston College1.9724.9%1st Place
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4.14Harvard University1.6216.2%1st Place
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5.53U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.079.9%1st Place
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10.08University of Vermont-0.401.8%1st Place
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6.51Tufts University0.807.9%1st Place
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10.55The Citadel-0.411.8%1st Place
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6.37Bowdoin College0.736.9%1st Place
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7.41Tufts University0.435.5%1st Place
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10.52Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.691.8%1st Place
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9.35University of New Hampshire-0.223.2%1st Place
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10.77Maine Maritime Academy-0.652.4%1st Place
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7.26Northeastern University0.505.5%1st Place
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6.45University of California at Berkeley0.987.8%1st Place
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8.23Dartmouth College0.174.0%1st Place
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13.39Northwestern University-1.850.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Joslin | 24.9% | 19.1% | 16.0% | 12.6% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kate Danielson | 16.2% | 16.9% | 14.0% | 13.6% | 11.9% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| David Vinogradov | 9.9% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 12.0% | 11.3% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| William Gear | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 12.8% | 13.2% | 12.8% | 5.9% |
| Grant Schmidt | 7.9% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Henry Parker | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 11.7% | 15.8% | 15.3% | 9.0% |
| Shea McGrath | 6.9% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Patricia Winssinger | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| Zach Earnshaw | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 14.1% | 17.4% | 8.6% |
| Marykate Hanus | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 12.2% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 3.7% |
| Griffin Stolp | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 11.3% | 14.1% | 19.4% | 10.8% |
| Carter Anderson | 5.5% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 2.3% | 0.5% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Will Eggena | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 4.3% | 1.7% |
| Sean Bascoe | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 13.8% | 58.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.