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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston College1.97+2.50vs Predicted
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2Tufts University0.80+4.44vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College0.73+3.50vs Predicted
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4Tufts University0.43+3.52vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.78+1.44vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont0.36+1.75vs Predicted
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7University of New Hampshire-0.22+2.69vs Predicted
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8Harvard University1.62-3.81vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College0.17-0.78vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University0.50-2.64vs Predicted
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11The Citadel-0.41-0.30vs Predicted
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12Maine Maritime Academy-0.82-0.76vs Predicted
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13University of California at Berkeley0.98-6.38vs Predicted
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14Northwestern University-1.85-0.52vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.69-4.66vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.5Boston College1.9723.5%1st Place
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6.44Tufts University0.807.3%1st Place
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6.5Bowdoin College0.736.7%1st Place
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7.52Tufts University0.435.9%1st Place
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6.44U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.787.9%1st Place
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7.75University of Vermont0.364.8%1st Place
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9.69University of New Hampshire-0.223.2%1st Place
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4.19Harvard University1.6216.6%1st Place
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8.22Dartmouth College0.174.3%1st Place
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7.36Northeastern University0.505.8%1st Place
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10.7The Citadel-0.411.9%1st Place
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11.24Maine Maritime Academy-0.821.8%1st Place
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6.62University of California at Berkeley0.987.4%1st Place
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13.48Northwestern University-1.850.5%1st Place
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10.34Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.692.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Joslin | 23.5% | 19.1% | 15.3% | 12.6% | 10.4% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grant Schmidt | 7.3% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Shea McGrath | 6.7% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Patricia Winssinger | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 1.0% |
| Joey Richardson | 7.9% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Marco Welch | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 1.0% |
| Marykate Hanus | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 11.5% | 13.1% | 12.2% | 4.3% |
| Kate Danielson | 16.6% | 16.1% | 14.9% | 13.1% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Will Eggena | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 4.8% | 1.8% |
| Carter Anderson | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 0.5% |
| Henry Parker | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 12.2% | 14.5% | 16.9% | 10.4% |
| Isaac Thompson | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 10.8% | 14.5% | 22.0% | 13.3% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Sean Bascoe | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 8.0% | 13.3% | 58.7% |
| Zach Earnshaw | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 14.9% | 15.9% | 8.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.