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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University1.62+3.13vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.78+4.56vs Predicted
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3Boston College1.97+0.43vs Predicted
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4Northeastern University0.50+3.50vs Predicted
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5University of California at Berkeley0.98+1.69vs Predicted
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6University of New Hampshire-0.22+3.50vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College0.17+1.17vs Predicted
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8Tufts University0.43-0.49vs Predicted
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9Tufts University0.80-2.58vs Predicted
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10Bowdoin College0.73-3.56vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.69-0.56vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont0.36-4.23vs Predicted
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13Maine Maritime Academy-0.82-1.76vs Predicted
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14The Citadel-0.41-3.17vs Predicted
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15Northwestern University-1.85-1.61vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.13Harvard University1.6216.8%1st Place
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6.56U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.787.2%1st Place
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3.43Boston College1.9724.1%1st Place
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7.5Northeastern University0.505.1%1st Place
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6.69University of California at Berkeley0.986.5%1st Place
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9.5University of New Hampshire-0.223.4%1st Place
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8.17Dartmouth College0.174.4%1st Place
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7.51Tufts University0.436.1%1st Place
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6.42Tufts University0.807.0%1st Place
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6.44Bowdoin College0.737.6%1st Place
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10.44Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.691.9%1st Place
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7.77University of Vermont0.365.1%1st Place
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11.24Maine Maritime Academy-0.822.1%1st Place
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10.83The Citadel-0.412.1%1st Place
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13.39Northwestern University-1.850.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kate Danielson | 16.8% | 15.3% | 16.2% | 12.6% | 12.2% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joey Richardson | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.1% |
| Peter Joslin | 24.1% | 18.7% | 16.1% | 13.1% | 9.8% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carter Anderson | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 0.9% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 6.5% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Marykate Hanus | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 13.4% | 11.2% | 4.2% |
| Will Eggena | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 4.5% | 1.5% |
| Patricia Winssinger | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 0.6% |
| Grant Schmidt | 7.0% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Shea McGrath | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Zach Earnshaw | 1.9% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 11.6% | 14.1% | 16.1% | 8.1% |
| Marco Welch | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 1.1% |
| Isaac Thompson | 2.1% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 10.4% | 15.3% | 20.5% | 14.6% |
| Henry Parker | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 9.5% | 12.6% | 14.2% | 17.3% | 11.1% |
| Sean Bascoe | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 14.8% | 57.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.