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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston College1.97+2.53vs Predicted
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2University of Vermont0.36+5.76vs Predicted
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3Harvard University1.62+1.14vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.78+2.42vs Predicted
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5University of California at Berkeley0.98+1.51vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College0.73+0.70vs Predicted
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7Tufts University0.80-0.67vs Predicted
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8Tufts University0.43-0.42vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University0.50-1.56vs Predicted
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10University of New Hampshire-0.22-0.32vs Predicted
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11Maine Maritime Academy-0.82+0.20vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College0.17-3.78vs Predicted
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13The Citadel-0.41-2.36vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.69-3.56vs Predicted
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15Northwestern University-1.85-1.58vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.53Boston College1.9722.1%1st Place
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7.76University of Vermont0.365.5%1st Place
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4.14Harvard University1.6217.9%1st Place
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6.42U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.788.1%1st Place
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6.51University of California at Berkeley0.987.0%1st Place
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6.7Bowdoin College0.737.2%1st Place
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6.33Tufts University0.807.5%1st Place
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7.58Tufts University0.435.4%1st Place
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7.44Northeastern University0.505.7%1st Place
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9.68University of New Hampshire-0.222.9%1st Place
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11.2Maine Maritime Academy-0.821.8%1st Place
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8.22Dartmouth College0.174.5%1st Place
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10.64The Citadel-0.412.0%1st Place
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10.44Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.691.8%1st Place
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13.42Northwestern University-1.850.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Joslin | 22.1% | 20.0% | 16.9% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marco Welch | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 1.0% |
| Kate Danielson | 17.9% | 16.2% | 14.5% | 12.6% | 11.6% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Joey Richardson | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Shea McGrath | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Grant Schmidt | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Patricia Winssinger | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 0.9% |
| Carter Anderson | 5.7% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 0.7% |
| Marykate Hanus | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 12.8% | 12.2% | 4.8% |
| Isaac Thompson | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 14.4% | 23.1% | 13.4% |
| Will Eggena | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 4.7% | 1.7% |
| Henry Parker | 2.0% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 11.8% | 15.0% | 16.8% | 10.1% |
| Zach Earnshaw | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 14.4% | 15.0% | 8.4% |
| Sean Bascoe | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 8.2% | 13.5% | 58.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.