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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston College1.97+2.39vs Predicted
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2University of California at Berkeley0.98+4.49vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.07+2.42vs Predicted
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4Harvard University1.62+0.03vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University0.50+2.38vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College0.17+2.14vs Predicted
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7University of New Hampshire-0.22+2.30vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College0.73-1.55vs Predicted
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9Tufts University0.43-1.64vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont-0.40+0.03vs Predicted
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11The Citadel-0.41-0.53vs Predicted
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12Tufts University0.80-5.58vs Predicted
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13Maine Maritime Academy-0.82-1.67vs Predicted
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14Northwestern University-1.85-0.58vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.69-4.64vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.39Boston College1.9723.9%1st Place
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6.49University of California at Berkeley0.986.9%1st Place
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5.42U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.0711.8%1st Place
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4.03Harvard University1.6217.8%1st Place
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7.38Northeastern University0.505.0%1st Place
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8.14Dartmouth College0.174.1%1st Place
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9.3University of New Hampshire-0.222.8%1st Place
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6.45Bowdoin College0.737.2%1st Place
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7.36Tufts University0.436.1%1st Place
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10.03University of Vermont-0.401.9%1st Place
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10.47The Citadel-0.411.8%1st Place
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6.42Tufts University0.807.3%1st Place
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11.33Maine Maritime Academy-0.820.9%1st Place
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13.42Northwestern University-1.850.4%1st Place
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10.36Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.691.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Joslin | 23.9% | 19.8% | 15.6% | 12.3% | 11.1% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 6.9% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| David Vinogradov | 11.8% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Kate Danielson | 17.8% | 17.8% | 13.4% | 13.5% | 10.9% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carter Anderson | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 0.6% |
| Will Eggena | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 7.9% | 4.2% | 1.5% |
| Marykate Hanus | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 3.5% |
| Shea McGrath | 7.2% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Patricia Winssinger | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| William Gear | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 12.6% | 12.2% | 12.8% | 5.9% |
| Henry Parker | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 12.5% | 13.6% | 16.0% | 8.3% |
| Grant Schmidt | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Isaac Thompson | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 14.7% | 20.9% | 14.4% |
| Sean Bascoe | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 9.8% | 14.5% | 55.9% |
| Zach Earnshaw | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 11.3% | 14.5% | 14.3% | 8.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.