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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Connecticut College3.71+5.92vs Predicted
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2Boston College3.48+5.81vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.48+4.83vs Predicted
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4Yale University3.74+2.57vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.45+2.75vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.32+2.28vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University3.28+1.48vs Predicted
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8Tufts University3.48-0.44vs Predicted
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9University of South Florida2.70+1.85vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania2.34+2.52vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy2.68+0.01vs Predicted
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12Eckerd College2.90-1.59vs Predicted
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13College of Charleston3.20-4.37vs Predicted
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14Dartmouth College3.18-5.45vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University3.39-7.03vs Predicted
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16George Washington University1.35-0.61vs Predicted
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17Harvard University2.81-6.47vs Predicted
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18Cornell University1.81-4.06vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.92Connecticut College3.710.1%1st Place
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7.81Boston College3.480.1%1st Place
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7.83St. Mary's College of Maryland3.480.1%1st Place
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6.57Yale University3.740.1%1st Place
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7.75Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.450.1%1st Place
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8.28U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.320.1%1st Place
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8.48Georgetown University3.280.1%1st Place
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7.56Tufts University3.480.1%1st Place
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10.85University of South Florida2.700.0%1st Place
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12.52University of Pennsylvania2.340.0%1st Place
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11.01U. S. Naval Academy2.680.0%1st Place
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10.41Eckerd College2.900.0%1st Place
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8.63College of Charleston3.200.1%1st Place
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8.55Dartmouth College3.180.1%1st Place
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7.97Old Dominion University3.390.1%1st Place
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15.39George Washington University1.350.0%1st Place
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10.53Harvard University2.810.0%1st Place
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13.94Cornell University1.810.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlantic Brugman | 8.6% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Briana Provancha | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Mayumi Roller | 7.5% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Marlena Fauer | 10.6% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Kelly Crane | 7.1% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 0.1% |
| Jennifer Proctor | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.0% |
| Nancy Hagood | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 1.4% |
| Natalie Salk | 7.1% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Hillary Noble | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 6.5% | 4.2% |
| Emma Kofmehl | 2.8% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 12.0% | 14.1% | 11.2% |
| Sara Burke | 4.3% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 5.1% |
| Emilie Mademann | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 2.9% |
| Grace Lucas | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 1.1% |
| Kelsey Wheeler | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.1% |
| Morgan Wilson | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.7% |
| Julia Gardner | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 16.1% | 44.9% |
| Morgan Russom | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 3.9% |
| Alison Love | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 11.8% | 19.8% | 21.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.