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📊 Prediction Accuracy
21.1%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+5.32vs Predicted
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2Hampton University2.26+8.63vs Predicted
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3Eckerd College2.72+5.73vs Predicted
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4Fordham University3.16+2.80vs Predicted
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5Connecticut College2.45+5.14vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont2.80+2.26vs Predicted
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7Northeastern University1.63+6.38vs Predicted
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8University of Michigan2.09+3.59vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania2.80-0.89vs Predicted
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10George Washington University2.72-1.50vs Predicted
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11Cornell University3.14-4.19vs Predicted
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12University of South Florida2.27-0.99vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College2.14-2.11vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.12-2.64vs Predicted
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15University of Rhode Island1.94-3.11vs Predicted
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16Washington College1.26-1.38vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.11-5.73vs Predicted
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18Christopher Newport University1.89-5.84vs Predicted
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19U. S. Naval Academy2.88-11.45vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.32St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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10.63Hampton University2.260.0%1st Place
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8.73Eckerd College2.720.1%1st Place
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6.8Fordham University3.160.1%1st Place
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10.14Connecticut College2.450.0%1st Place
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8.26University of Vermont2.800.1%1st Place
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13.38Northeastern University1.630.0%1st Place
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11.59University of Michigan2.090.0%1st Place
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8.11University of Pennsylvania2.800.1%1st Place
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8.5George Washington University2.720.1%1st Place
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6.81Cornell University3.140.1%1st Place
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11.01University of South Florida2.270.0%1st Place
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10.89SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
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11.36U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.120.0%1st Place
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11.89University of Rhode Island1.940.0%1st Place
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14.62Washington College1.260.0%1st Place
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11.27Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.110.0%1st Place
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12.16Christopher Newport University1.890.0%1st Place
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7.55U. S. Naval Academy2.880.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam McCarthy | 10.0% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Luca Taglialegne | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 3.6% |
| Karl Rasmus Sayre | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| Roberto Stevens | 9.2% | 10.4% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| CJ Mckenna | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 2.7% |
| Thomas Harden | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Santiago Hirschmann | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 9.7% | 11.4% | 11.3% | 15.4% |
| August Sturm | 4.1% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 6.5% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.9% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.8% |
| Clark Uhl | 9.0% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| John Whitehead | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 4.4% |
| John Lawless | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 4.5% |
| Garrett Lawlor | 4.4% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 5.6% |
| Matthew Schryver | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 9.1% |
| Paul Hart | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 9.4% | 13.1% | 28.2% |
| Alexander Bowen | 2.5% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.0% |
| Spencer Charney | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 9.7% |
| Maxwell Brill | 8.6% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.