← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
15.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Eckerd College2.72+7.67vs Predicted
-
2Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.11+9.34vs Predicted
-
3Connecticut College2.45+6.91vs Predicted
-
4George Washington University2.72+4.61vs Predicted
-
5U. S. Naval Academy2.88+3.15vs Predicted
-
6University of Rhode Island1.94+5.93vs Predicted
-
7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.12+4.35vs Predicted
-
8Cornell University3.14-0.96vs Predicted
-
9University of Pennsylvania2.80-0.88vs Predicted
-
10St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28-3.82vs Predicted
-
11Hampton University2.26-0.37vs Predicted
-
12University of Vermont2.80-3.42vs Predicted
-
13Fordham University3.16-6.45vs Predicted
-
14SUNY Maritime College2.14-2.70vs Predicted
-
15University of Michigan2.09-3.72vs Predicted
-
16Christopher Newport University1.89-3.85vs Predicted
-
17Northeastern University1.63-3.69vs Predicted
-
18University of South Florida2.27-7.49vs Predicted
-
19Washington College1.26-4.61vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
8.67Eckerd College2.720.1%1st Place
-
11.34Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.110.0%1st Place
-
9.91Connecticut College2.450.1%1st Place
-
8.61George Washington University2.720.1%1st Place
-
8.15U. S. Naval Academy2.880.1%1st Place
-
11.93University of Rhode Island1.940.0%1st Place
-
11.35U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.120.0%1st Place
-
7.04Cornell University3.140.1%1st Place
-
8.12University of Pennsylvania2.800.1%1st Place
-
6.18St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
-
10.63Hampton University2.260.0%1st Place
-
8.58University of Vermont2.800.1%1st Place
-
6.55Fordham University3.160.1%1st Place
-
11.3SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
-
11.28University of Michigan2.090.0%1st Place
-
12.15Christopher Newport University1.890.0%1st Place
-
13.31Northeastern University1.630.0%1st Place
-
10.51University of South Florida2.270.0%1st Place
-
14.39Washington College1.260.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karl Rasmus Sayre | 5.1% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.3% |
| Alexander Bowen | 3.9% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 5.1% |
| CJ Mckenna | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 3.0% | 2.9% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 6.3% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Maxwell Brill | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| Matthew Schryver | 3.7% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 11.0% |
| Garrett Lawlor | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 5.5% |
| Clark Uhl | 9.5% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| Liam McCarthy | 10.5% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Luca Taglialegne | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 3.5% |
| Thomas Harden | 6.9% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Roberto Stevens | 10.5% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| John Lawless | 4.3% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 9.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% |
| August Sturm | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.4% |
| Spencer Charney | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 10.3% | 8.3% |
| Santiago Hirschmann | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 5.0% | 1.5% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 9.2% | 13.3% | 17.0% |
| John Whitehead | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.2% |
| Paul Hart | 1.8% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 12.9% | 25.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.