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📊 Prediction Accuracy
36.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.88+6.92vs Predicted
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2Fordham University3.16+4.86vs Predicted
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3George Washington University2.72+5.70vs Predicted
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4Eckerd College2.72+4.56vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+1.52vs Predicted
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6Cornell University3.14+0.82vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont2.80+1.32vs Predicted
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8Connecticut College2.45+2.05vs Predicted
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9Christopher Newport University1.89+3.01vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.12+1.24vs Predicted
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11University of Michigan2.09+0.38vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University1.63+1.74vs Predicted
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13University of Rhode Island1.94-1.15vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania2.80-5.61vs Predicted
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15Hampton University2.26-4.52vs Predicted
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16University of South Florida2.27-5.56vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College2.14-5.86vs Predicted
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18Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.11-6.81vs Predicted
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19Washington College1.26-4.60vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.92U. S. Naval Academy2.880.1%1st Place
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6.86Fordham University3.160.1%1st Place
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8.7George Washington University2.720.1%1st Place
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8.56Eckerd College2.720.1%1st Place
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6.52St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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6.82Cornell University3.140.1%1st Place
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8.32University of Vermont2.800.1%1st Place
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10.05Connecticut College2.450.1%1st Place
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12.01Christopher Newport University1.890.0%1st Place
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11.24U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.120.0%1st Place
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11.38University of Michigan2.090.0%1st Place
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13.74Northeastern University1.630.0%1st Place
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11.85University of Rhode Island1.940.0%1st Place
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8.39University of Pennsylvania2.800.1%1st Place
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10.48Hampton University2.260.0%1st Place
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10.44University of South Florida2.270.0%1st Place
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11.14SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
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11.19Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.110.0%1st Place
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14.4Washington College1.260.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maxwell Brill | 6.3% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Roberto Stevens | 10.0% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 7.7% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.6% |
| Karl Rasmus Sayre | 5.3% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.9% |
| Liam McCarthy | 8.6% | 10.9% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Clark Uhl | 11.6% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 2.2% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Thomas Harden | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.9% |
| CJ Mckenna | 5.2% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.5% |
| Spencer Charney | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 9.5% |
| Garrett Lawlor | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 4.5% |
| August Sturm | 2.6% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.4% |
| Santiago Hirschmann | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 10.7% | 13.4% | 18.1% |
| Matthew Schryver | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 7.7% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Luca Taglialegne | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 4.9% |
| John Whitehead | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 3.5% |
| John Lawless | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 5.9% |
| Alexander Bowen | 3.4% | 2.0% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 5.7% |
| Paul Hart | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 5.5% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 14.3% | 25.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.