← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Fordham University3.16+5.84vs Predicted
-
2Eckerd College2.72+6.66vs Predicted
-
3U. S. Naval Academy2.88+5.03vs Predicted
-
4Cornell University3.14+2.80vs Predicted
-
5St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+1.47vs Predicted
-
6University of South Florida2.27+4.55vs Predicted
-
7University of Vermont2.80+1.40vs Predicted
-
8Connecticut College2.45+2.06vs Predicted
-
9Hampton University2.26+1.43vs Predicted
-
10University of Pennsylvania2.80-1.83vs Predicted
-
11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.12+0.29vs Predicted
-
12Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.11-0.29vs Predicted
-
13George Washington University2.72-4.63vs Predicted
-
14Northeastern University1.63-0.50vs Predicted
-
15Washington College1.26-0.48vs Predicted
-
16University of Rhode Island1.94-4.05vs Predicted
-
17SUNY Maritime College2.14-5.89vs Predicted
-
18University of Michigan2.09-6.70vs Predicted
-
19Christopher Newport University1.89-7.16vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
6.84Fordham University3.160.1%1st Place
-
8.66Eckerd College2.720.1%1st Place
-
8.03U. S. Naval Academy2.880.1%1st Place
-
6.8Cornell University3.140.1%1st Place
-
6.47St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
-
10.55University of South Florida2.270.0%1st Place
-
8.4University of Vermont2.800.1%1st Place
-
10.06Connecticut College2.450.1%1st Place
-
10.43Hampton University2.260.0%1st Place
-
8.17University of Pennsylvania2.800.1%1st Place
-
11.29U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.120.0%1st Place
-
11.71Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.110.0%1st Place
-
8.37George Washington University2.720.1%1st Place
-
13.5Northeastern University1.630.0%1st Place
-
14.52Washington College1.260.0%1st Place
-
11.95University of Rhode Island1.940.0%1st Place
-
11.11SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
-
11.3University of Michigan2.090.0%1st Place
-
11.84Christopher Newport University1.890.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roberto Stevens | 8.8% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| Karl Rasmus Sayre | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 0.6% |
| Maxwell Brill | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.2% |
| Clark Uhl | 9.5% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Liam McCarthy | 9.8% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| John Whitehead | 4.9% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 5.1% |
| Thomas Harden | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| CJ Mckenna | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 2.3% |
| Luca Taglialegne | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 3.8% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Garrett Lawlor | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 5.2% |
| Alexander Bowen | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.1% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 6.5% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 1.2% |
| Santiago Hirschmann | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 10.4% | 13.2% | 16.0% |
| Paul Hart | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 12.3% | 30.4% |
| Matthew Schryver | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 7.3% |
| John Lawless | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 4.9% |
| August Sturm | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.6% |
| Spencer Charney | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.