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📊 Prediction Accuracy
21.1%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Christopher Newport University1.89+11.25vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.88+5.98vs Predicted
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3Cornell University3.14+3.91vs Predicted
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4George Washington University2.72+4.60vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.12+6.61vs Predicted
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6Eckerd College2.72+2.54vs Predicted
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7Connecticut College2.45+2.81vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania2.80+0.55vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College2.14+2.02vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont2.80-1.85vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University1.63+2.36vs Predicted
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12University of South Florida2.27-1.01vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.11-1.96vs Predicted
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14Fordham University3.16-7.10vs Predicted
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15University of Rhode Island1.94-3.14vs Predicted
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16Hampton University2.26-5.50vs Predicted
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17St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28-10.77vs Predicted
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18University of Michigan2.09-6.68vs Predicted
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19Washington College1.26-4.61vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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12.25Christopher Newport University1.890.0%1st Place
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7.98U. S. Naval Academy2.880.1%1st Place
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6.91Cornell University3.140.1%1st Place
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8.6George Washington University2.720.1%1st Place
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11.61U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.120.0%1st Place
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8.54Eckerd College2.720.1%1st Place
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9.81Connecticut College2.450.1%1st Place
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8.55University of Pennsylvania2.800.1%1st Place
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11.02SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
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8.15University of Vermont2.800.1%1st Place
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13.36Northeastern University1.630.0%1st Place
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10.99University of South Florida2.270.0%1st Place
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11.04Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.110.0%1st Place
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6.9Fordham University3.160.1%1st Place
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11.86University of Rhode Island1.940.0%1st Place
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10.5Hampton University2.260.0%1st Place
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6.23St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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11.32University of Michigan2.090.0%1st Place
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14.39Washington College1.260.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Charney | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 11.2% |
| Maxwell Brill | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Clark Uhl | 9.7% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.7% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 5.6% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| Garrett Lawlor | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.1% |
| Karl Rasmus Sayre | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.4% |
| CJ Mckenna | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.5% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| John Lawless | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.4% |
| Thomas Harden | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| Santiago Hirschmann | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 11.0% | 10.3% | 16.7% |
| John Whitehead | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 3.7% |
| Alexander Bowen | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.1% |
| Roberto Stevens | 8.9% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Matthew Schryver | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 9.5% |
| Luca Taglialegne | 3.2% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 3.9% |
| Liam McCarthy | 11.8% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 10.5% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| August Sturm | 3.0% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 6.6% |
| Paul Hart | 2.0% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 15.4% | 24.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.