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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+5.32vs Predicted
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2George Washington University2.72+6.65vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.88+5.04vs Predicted
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4Hampton University2.26+6.72vs Predicted
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5Cornell University3.14+2.09vs Predicted
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6Christopher Newport University1.89+6.06vs Predicted
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7Eckerd College2.72+1.70vs Predicted
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8University of Michigan2.09+3.67vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College2.45+0.62vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania2.80-1.86vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.11+0.30vs Predicted
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12Washington College1.26+3.07vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont2.80-4.98vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.12-2.58vs Predicted
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15Northeastern University1.63-1.85vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College2.14-4.93vs Predicted
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17Fordham University3.16-10.19vs Predicted
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18University of Rhode Island1.94-6.04vs Predicted
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19University of South Florida2.27-8.82vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.32St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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8.65George Washington University2.720.1%1st Place
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8.04U. S. Naval Academy2.880.1%1st Place
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10.72Hampton University2.260.0%1st Place
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7.09Cornell University3.140.1%1st Place
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12.06Christopher Newport University1.890.0%1st Place
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8.7Eckerd College2.720.1%1st Place
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11.67University of Michigan2.090.0%1st Place
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9.62Connecticut College2.450.1%1st Place
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8.14University of Pennsylvania2.800.1%1st Place
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11.3Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.110.0%1st Place
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15.07Washington College1.260.0%1st Place
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8.02University of Vermont2.800.1%1st Place
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11.42U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.120.0%1st Place
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13.15Northeastern University1.630.0%1st Place
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11.07SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
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6.81Fordham University3.160.1%1st Place
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11.96University of Rhode Island1.940.0%1st Place
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10.18University of South Florida2.270.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam McCarthy | 10.1% | 12.0% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 0.5% |
| Maxwell Brill | 8.5% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Luca Taglialegne | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 3.2% |
| Clark Uhl | 7.9% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Spencer Charney | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 10.9% |
| Karl Rasmus Sayre | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.8% |
| August Sturm | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.8% |
| CJ Mckenna | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 2.1% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Alexander Bowen | 3.4% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 4.6% |
| Paul Hart | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 10.1% | 14.7% | 31.3% |
| Thomas Harden | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Garrett Lawlor | 4.1% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 5.1% |
| Santiago Hirschmann | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 11.8% | 17.4% |
| John Lawless | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 4.3% |
| Roberto Stevens | 9.7% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Matthew Schryver | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 7.7% |
| John Whitehead | 3.9% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 2.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.