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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.6%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University2.16+9.35vs Predicted
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2Northeastern University1.63+10.69vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.12+7.62vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.94+2.86vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.80+2.70vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont2.80+1.45vs Predicted
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7Connecticut College2.45+2.07vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy2.50+1.04vs Predicted
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9Cornell University2.43-0.04vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College2.14+0.32vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University1.89+0.44vs Predicted
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12Hampton University2.26-1.80vs Predicted
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13George Washington University2.32-3.71vs Predicted
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14Eckerd College2.72-6.08vs Predicted
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15University of South Florida1.68-2.72vs Predicted
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16Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.11-5.64vs Predicted
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17Washington College1.26-2.92vs Predicted
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18University of Michigan2.09-7.49vs Predicted
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19University of Rhode Island1.94-8.14vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.35Fordham University2.160.0%1st Place
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12.69Northeastern University1.630.0%1st Place
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10.62U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.120.1%1st Place
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6.86St. Mary's College of Maryland2.940.1%1st Place
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7.7University of Pennsylvania2.800.1%1st Place
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7.45University of Vermont2.800.1%1st Place
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9.07Connecticut College2.450.1%1st Place
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9.04U. S. Naval Academy2.500.1%1st Place
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8.96Cornell University2.430.1%1st Place
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10.32SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
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11.44Christopher Newport University1.890.0%1st Place
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10.2Hampton University2.260.0%1st Place
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9.29George Washington University2.320.1%1st Place
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7.92Eckerd College2.720.1%1st Place
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12.28University of South Florida1.680.0%1st Place
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10.36Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.110.0%1st Place
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14.08Washington College1.260.0%1st Place
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10.51University of Michigan2.090.0%1st Place
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10.86University of Rhode Island1.940.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Snyder | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.4% |
| Santiago Hirschmann | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 11.6% | 13.5% |
| Garrett Lawlor | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 5.4% |
| Lewis Cooper | 9.3% | 11.6% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Thomas Harden | 9.5% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.7% |
| CJ Mckenna | 6.6% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 1.5% |
| Nicholas Gartner | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 1.8% |
| Phillip Schofield | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 2.1% |
| John Lawless | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 3.3% |
| Spencer Charney | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.3% |
| Luca Taglialegne | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 3.1% |
| Wade Wagner | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 6.2% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 2.8% |
| Karl Rasmus Sayre | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| Brett Putnam | 3.1% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 2.9% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 8.8% | 11.3% | 12.9% |
| Alexander Bowen | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 3.8% |
| Paul Hart | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 13.0% | 26.3% |
| August Sturm | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 4.7% |
| Matthew Schryver | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.