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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22+4.62vs Predicted
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2Fordham University2.60+5.78vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy3.25+2.40vs Predicted
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4George Washington University2.63+3.44vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University1.42+7.12vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont2.05+3.85vs Predicted
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7Connecticut College2.05+2.86vs Predicted
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8Eckerd College1.95+2.14vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College2.05+0.76vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.78+1.08vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University2.31-2.04vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.24-2.58vs Predicted
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13University of Rhode Island2.80-6.30vs Predicted
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14Hampton University1.08-0.81vs Predicted
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15University of Michigan1.28-2.33vs Predicted
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16University of Pennsylvania3.12-10.21vs Predicted
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17Washington College0.23-1.17vs Predicted
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18Cornell University2.11-8.61vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.62St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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7.78Fordham University2.600.1%1st Place
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5.4U. S. Naval Academy3.250.1%1st Place
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7.44George Washington University2.630.1%1st Place
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12.12Northeastern University1.420.0%1st Place
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9.85University of Vermont2.050.0%1st Place
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9.86Connecticut College2.050.0%1st Place
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10.14Eckerd College1.950.0%1st Place
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9.76SUNY Maritime College2.050.0%1st Place
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11.08U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.780.0%1st Place
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8.96Christopher Newport University2.310.1%1st Place
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9.42Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.240.0%1st Place
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6.7University of Rhode Island2.800.1%1st Place
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13.19Hampton University1.080.0%1st Place
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12.67University of Michigan1.280.0%1st Place
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5.79University of Pennsylvania3.120.1%1st Place
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15.83Washington College0.230.0%1st Place
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9.39Cornell University2.110.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leo Boucher | 11.9% | 12.1% | 11.6% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brad Seferian | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Connor Bayless | 12.6% | 12.1% | 11.9% | 10.9% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Feves | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Chris Colbeth | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 11.3% | 13.8% | 7.9% |
| Colin Richards | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 2.2% |
| Gordon Gurnell | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.0% |
| Samuel Shannon | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 2.3% |
| Juan Lejarraga | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 1.3% |
| Luke Welker | 4.2% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 3.6% |
| Javier Gonzalez Rotge | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 1.1% |
| Frank Reeg | 3.8% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 1.2% |
| Aidan naughton | 9.3% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Filip Stevanovic | 2.3% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 11.8% | 18.4% | 13.5% |
| Connor Goulet | 2.1% | 1.3% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 12.9% | 14.3% | 9.9% |
| Joseph LaForgia | 11.2% | 12.4% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Vernon | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 7.8% | 13.7% | 52.9% |
| Sebby Turner | 4.7% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 1.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.