Race 1A

cedarfest

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

70.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
10
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Christian Cyrul 55.8% 24.8% 10.7% 4.9% 2.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Rachel Rantanen 13.7% 21.7% 22.0% 15.4% 12.8% 7.3% 4.2% 2.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Mark Myers 3.0% 5.5% 6.6% 9.4% 8.0% 11.9% 18.5% 14.6% 13.1% 9.4%
Brian Pribe 4.5% 9.9% 12.9% 16.0% 14.8% 15.4% 10.0% 9.4% 5.6% 1.5%
Nick Maude 7.7% 11.2% 13.5% 13.7% 17.8% 14.2% 10.6% 5.6% 4.7% 1.0%
Patrick Sawyer 3.0% 4.2% 3.8% 7.2% 6.5% 11.5% 11.4% 16.4% 17.3% 18.7%
Nick Nowicki 1.6% 2.8% 5.1% 6.2% 8.0% 10.2% 13.0% 16.3% 17.9% 18.9%
Matthew Otenbaker 2.4% 3.6% 4.8% 7.7% 9.2% 7.9% 12.7% 16.2% 19.4% 16.1%
Samuel Ephraim 7.0% 13.9% 17.2% 15.0% 15.1% 12.5% 9.8% 6.0% 2.4% 1.1%
Emily Allen 1.3% 2.4% 3.4% 4.5% 5.0% 8.3% 9.7% 13.0% 19.2% 33.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.