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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Hawaii3.68+2.83vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California2.57+4.60vs Predicted
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3University of Hawaii3.36+1.58vs Predicted
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4University of Hawaii2.28+3.45vs Predicted
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5University of Hawaii3.83-1.50vs Predicted
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6Western Washington University1.88+2.45vs Predicted
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7University of California at Irvine2.83-1.15vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego1.78+0.73vs Predicted
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9Western Washington University2.02-0.78vs Predicted
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10University of Southern California3.16-4.94vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.75-2.33vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego1.60-2.58vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Cruz1.10-2.37vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.83University of Hawaii3.680.2%1st Place
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6.6University of Southern California2.570.1%1st Place
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4.58University of Hawaii3.360.1%1st Place
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7.45University of Hawaii2.280.0%1st Place
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3.5University of Hawaii3.830.2%1st Place
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8.45Western Washington University1.880.0%1st Place
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5.85University of California at Irvine2.830.1%1st Place
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8.73University of California at San Diego1.780.0%1st Place
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8.22Western Washington University2.020.0%1st Place
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5.06University of Southern California3.160.1%1st Place
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8.67Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.750.0%1st Place
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9.42University of California at San Diego1.600.0%1st Place
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10.63University of California at Santa Cruz1.100.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Pokras | 18.9% | 17.4% | 14.9% | 15.1% | 10.0% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kelsey Rupp | 5.8% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 2.2% |
| Hannah Tuson-Turner | 12.7% | 14.0% | 12.7% | 12.6% | 13.8% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Matt Wenner | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 11.7% | 8.1% | 10.6% | 7.2% | 4.6% |
| William Peterson | 22.2% | 20.1% | 14.6% | 12.7% | 11.2% | 8.0% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Erika Vranizan | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 13.1% | 12.8% | 11.6% | 8.8% |
| Jack Porter | 9.2% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| Alicia Bernhard | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 13.2% | 14.8% | 13.3% | 10.3% |
| Bryan Rust | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 11.7% | 10.6% | 11.6% | 8.3% |
| Stephen Lue | 11.2% | 10.7% | 14.3% | 12.5% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Thomas Maher | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 11.0% | 11.9% | 12.5% | 12.9% | 10.4% |
| John Olson | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 13.3% | 18.0% | 17.0% |
| Connor Bescos | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 11.0% | 16.9% | 37.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.