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📊 Prediction Accuracy
81.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.2
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University0.94+1.57vs Predicted
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2Penn State University-0.70+3.60vs Predicted
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3Queen's University0.89-0.33vs Predicted
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4Rochester Institute of Technology-0.55+1.30vs Predicted
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5Rochester Institute of Technology-0.64+0.38vs Predicted
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6Penn State Behrend-0.45-0.98vs Predicted
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7Hamilton College-0.89-0.95vs Predicted
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8Rochester Institute of Technology-1.18-1.32vs Predicted
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9U. S. Military Academy-2.34-0.05vs Predicted
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10Syracuse University-2.54-0.75vs Predicted
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11University of Rochester-2.07-2.47vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.57Cornell University0.9431.4%1st Place
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5.6Penn State University-0.706.0%1st Place
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2.67Queen's University0.8929.6%1st Place
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5.3Rochester Institute of Technology-0.557.0%1st Place
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5.38Rochester Institute of Technology-0.646.9%1st Place
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5.02Penn State Behrend-0.457.5%1st Place
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6.05Hamilton College-0.894.8%1st Place
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6.68Rochester Institute of Technology-1.183.8%1st Place
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8.95U. S. Military Academy-2.340.8%1st Place
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9.25Syracuse University-2.540.9%1st Place
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8.53University of Rochester-2.071.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Greco | 31.4% | 25.4% | 18.9% | 11.0% | 7.8% | 3.8% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Simpkins | 6.0% | 7.5% | 9.7% | 11.3% | 12.1% | 15.0% | 12.9% | 12.0% | 8.2% | 4.2% | 1.1% |
| Defne Melikoglu | 29.6% | 24.1% | 19.4% | 13.1% | 7.8% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Josh Elliott | 7.0% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 13.5% | 12.5% | 12.8% | 12.6% | 11.8% | 7.4% | 2.7% | 0.5% |
| Kayla Maguire | 6.9% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 13.2% | 13.8% | 13.6% | 14.0% | 10.7% | 6.7% | 3.1% | 0.8% |
| Bryce Nill | 7.5% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 12.6% | 13.9% | 14.4% | 11.9% | 10.1% | 5.0% | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| Elizabeth Price | 4.8% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 12.3% | 12.3% | 15.1% | 13.6% | 10.8% | 5.9% | 2.0% |
| Ethan Menand | 3.8% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 13.0% | 14.5% | 15.1% | 10.6% | 4.0% |
| Gus Hankinson | 0.8% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 9.1% | 15.8% | 24.4% | 30.4% |
| Finn Halstead | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 13.7% | 22.7% | 39.0% |
| Ingemar Hentschel | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 17.2% | 24.4% | 21.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.