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📊 Prediction Accuracy
72.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University0.94+1.62vs Predicted
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2Queen's University0.89+0.57vs Predicted
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3Rochester Institute of Technology-0.64+2.46vs Predicted
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4Rochester Institute of Technology-0.55+1.30vs Predicted
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5Hamilton College-0.89+1.06vs Predicted
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6Penn State University-0.70-0.34vs Predicted
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7U. S. Military Academy-2.34+1.90vs Predicted
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8Rochester Institute of Technology-1.18-1.35vs Predicted
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9Syracuse University-2.54+0.30vs Predicted
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10Penn State Behrend-0.45-5.09vs Predicted
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11University of Rochester-2.07-2.42vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.62Cornell University0.9429.3%1st Place
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2.57Queen's University0.8930.9%1st Place
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5.46Rochester Institute of Technology-0.647.0%1st Place
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5.3Rochester Institute of Technology-0.556.9%1st Place
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6.06Hamilton College-0.894.9%1st Place
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5.66Penn State University-0.705.6%1st Place
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8.9U. S. Military Academy-2.341.4%1st Place
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6.65Rochester Institute of Technology-1.184.1%1st Place
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9.3Syracuse University-2.540.8%1st Place
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4.91Penn State Behrend-0.458.0%1st Place
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8.58University of Rochester-2.071.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Greco | 29.3% | 25.4% | 19.8% | 13.2% | 7.0% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Defne Melikoglu | 30.9% | 25.4% | 20.0% | 11.7% | 6.9% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kayla Maguire | 7.0% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 12.0% | 13.9% | 13.3% | 13.6% | 11.6% | 7.0% | 3.9% | 0.8% |
| Josh Elliott | 6.9% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 13.3% | 13.2% | 14.2% | 13.8% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 3.0% | 0.8% |
| Elizabeth Price | 4.9% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 13.2% | 14.5% | 14.1% | 11.5% | 5.4% | 2.0% |
| Joseph Simpkins | 5.6% | 7.0% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 13.0% | 14.2% | 13.4% | 11.2% | 9.2% | 4.5% | 1.1% |
| Gus Hankinson | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 14.2% | 22.1% | 32.4% |
| Ethan Menand | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 11.6% | 16.1% | 14.1% | 10.8% | 3.5% |
| Finn Halstead | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 8.0% | 13.5% | 23.4% | 38.9% |
| Bryce Nill | 8.0% | 10.2% | 13.2% | 12.8% | 15.8% | 13.0% | 11.3% | 8.3% | 5.2% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Ingemar Hentschel | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 11.4% | 17.9% | 25.4% | 20.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.