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📊 Prediction Accuracy
81.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.2
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Queen's University0.89+1.67vs Predicted
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2Penn State Behrend-0.45+2.92vs Predicted
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3Cornell University0.94-0.47vs Predicted
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4Rochester Institute of Technology-0.64+1.48vs Predicted
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5Rochester Institute of Technology-0.55+0.30vs Predicted
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6Hamilton College-0.89+0.05vs Predicted
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7Penn State University-0.70-1.36vs Predicted
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8Rochester Institute of Technology-1.18-1.26vs Predicted
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9University of Rochester-2.07-0.54vs Predicted
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10Syracuse University-2.54-0.73vs Predicted
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11U. S. Military Academy-2.34-2.08vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.67Queen's University0.8928.9%1st Place
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4.92Penn State Behrend-0.458.5%1st Place
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2.53Cornell University0.9432.2%1st Place
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5.48Rochester Institute of Technology-0.645.7%1st Place
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5.3Rochester Institute of Technology-0.556.5%1st Place
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6.05Hamilton College-0.894.8%1st Place
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5.64Penn State University-0.706.0%1st Place
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6.74Rochester Institute of Technology-1.183.6%1st Place
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8.46University of Rochester-2.071.5%1st Place
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9.27Syracuse University-2.540.9%1st Place
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8.92U. S. Military Academy-2.341.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defne Melikoglu | 28.9% | 25.3% | 19.2% | 12.7% | 7.4% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Bryce Nill | 8.5% | 9.6% | 12.5% | 14.3% | 14.0% | 12.8% | 12.2% | 10.0% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Marcus Greco | 32.2% | 25.9% | 18.2% | 11.6% | 6.9% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kayla Maguire | 5.7% | 7.6% | 10.8% | 11.9% | 12.7% | 15.4% | 12.6% | 11.5% | 7.8% | 3.3% | 0.8% |
| Josh Elliott | 6.5% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 12.8% | 13.0% | 13.6% | 13.4% | 10.8% | 6.9% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| Elizabeth Price | 4.8% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 12.7% | 14.5% | 13.7% | 11.5% | 5.9% | 1.7% |
| Joseph Simpkins | 6.0% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 11.3% | 13.1% | 13.0% | 13.7% | 12.2% | 8.9% | 4.3% | 1.0% |
| Ethan Menand | 3.6% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 11.2% | 13.8% | 15.2% | 15.0% | 10.6% | 3.6% |
| Ingemar Hentschel | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 10.5% | 17.0% | 22.9% | 22.1% |
| Finn Halstead | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 7.1% | 13.1% | 22.8% | 40.0% |
| Gus Hankinson | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 15.3% | 25.7% | 29.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.