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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Hawaii3.36+3.57vs Predicted
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2University of California at Irvine2.83+3.98vs Predicted
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3University of Hawaii3.83+0.50vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California2.57+2.67vs Predicted
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5University of Hawaii3.68-1.21vs Predicted
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6University of California at San Diego1.78+2.76vs Predicted
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7University of Hawaii2.28+0.30vs Predicted
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8University of Southern California3.16-3.05vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Cruz1.10+1.50vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego1.60-0.77vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.75-2.31vs Predicted
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12Western Washington University2.02-3.65vs Predicted
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13Western Washington University1.88-4.29vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.57University of Hawaii3.360.1%1st Place
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5.98University of California at Irvine2.830.1%1st Place
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3.5University of Hawaii3.830.2%1st Place
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6.67University of Southern California2.570.1%1st Place
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3.79University of Hawaii3.680.2%1st Place
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8.76University of California at San Diego1.780.0%1st Place
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7.3University of Hawaii2.280.1%1st Place
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4.95University of Southern California3.160.1%1st Place
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10.5University of California at Santa Cruz1.100.0%1st Place
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9.23University of California at San Diego1.600.0%1st Place
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8.69Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.750.0%1st Place
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8.35Western Washington University2.020.0%1st Place
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8.71Western Washington University1.880.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hannah Tuson-Turner | 13.6% | 13.1% | 14.0% | 12.7% | 11.6% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Jack Porter | 7.5% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 11.9% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 1.3% |
| William Peterson | 21.3% | 18.8% | 16.0% | 15.8% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Kelsey Rupp | 6.4% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 11.2% | 11.7% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 3.2% | 2.2% |
| Adam Pokras | 19.7% | 17.9% | 14.8% | 13.0% | 11.0% | 9.0% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Alicia Bernhard | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 12.2% | 13.8% | 14.1% | 10.5% |
| Matt Wenner | 5.8% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 12.3% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 3.3% |
| Stephen Lue | 11.9% | 11.5% | 11.4% | 11.6% | 11.6% | 12.7% | 10.9% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Connor Bescos | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 10.4% | 18.6% | 36.3% |
| John Olson | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 9.1% | 11.9% | 12.4% | 15.5% | 16.8% |
| Thomas Maher | 1.9% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 12.5% | 10.8% | 14.8% | 9.5% |
| Bryan Rust | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 14.7% | 10.5% | 8.3% |
| Erika Vranizan | 2.5% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 13.0% | 12.2% | 11.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.