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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Hawaii3.68+2.81vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii3.83+1.46vs Predicted
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3University of California at Irvine2.83+2.95vs Predicted
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4University of Hawaii3.36+0.59vs Predicted
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5Western Washington University2.02+3.03vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.75+2.84vs Predicted
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7University of Southern California2.57-0.42vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego1.78+0.72vs Predicted
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9University of Southern California3.16-3.91vs Predicted
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10University of Hawaii2.28-2.57vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz1.10-0.62vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego1.60-2.58vs Predicted
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13Western Washington University1.88-4.29vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.81University of Hawaii3.680.2%1st Place
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3.46University of Hawaii3.830.2%1st Place
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5.95University of California at Irvine2.830.1%1st Place
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4.59University of Hawaii3.360.1%1st Place
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8.03Western Washington University2.020.0%1st Place
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8.84Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.750.0%1st Place
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6.58University of Southern California2.570.1%1st Place
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8.72University of California at San Diego1.780.0%1st Place
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5.09University of Southern California3.160.1%1st Place
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7.43University of Hawaii2.280.1%1st Place
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10.38University of California at Santa Cruz1.100.0%1st Place
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9.42University of California at San Diego1.600.0%1st Place
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8.71Western Washington University1.880.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Pokras | 19.0% | 17.4% | 14.6% | 13.6% | 12.4% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| William Peterson | 22.8% | 20.0% | 16.0% | 11.5% | 10.4% | 8.5% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Porter | 7.2% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 11.7% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 12.2% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Hannah Tuson-Turner | 12.6% | 14.0% | 14.5% | 12.4% | 10.7% | 11.4% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| Bryan Rust | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 13.8% | 9.7% | 7.2% |
| Thomas Maher | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 12.7% | 12.5% | 14.8% | 11.3% |
| Kelsey Rupp | 7.2% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 6.7% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 8.7% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 2.0% |
| Alicia Bernhard | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 12.6% | 10.8% | 12.9% | 13.0% | 11.5% |
| Stephen Lue | 11.2% | 10.7% | 12.9% | 11.6% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Matt Wenner | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 6.6% | 5.5% |
| Connor Bescos | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 16.9% | 32.8% |
| John Olson | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 10.7% | 12.9% | 17.3% | 17.6% |
| Erika Vranizan | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 12.3% | 13.0% | 13.7% | 10.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.