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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+5.81vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy3.30+4.64vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University3.81+1.90vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+2.12vs Predicted
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5University of South Florida2.25+5.39vs Predicted
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6George Washington University2.72+2.70vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University2.89+1.06vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania2.80+0.29vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.16-2.11vs Predicted
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10University of Virginia2.12+1.20vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College2.14+0.04vs Predicted
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12Cornell University3.14-4.69vs Predicted
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13Queen's University1.89-1.29vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University1.89-2.42vs Predicted
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15Washington College1.26-1.08vs Predicted
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16Stevens Institute of Technology1.15-1.64vs Predicted
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17Hampton University0.69-1.52vs Predicted
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18Fordham University2.95-10.39vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.81St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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6.64U. S. Naval Academy3.300.1%1st Place
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4.9Georgetown University3.810.1%1st Place
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6.12Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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10.39University of South Florida2.250.0%1st Place
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8.7George Washington University2.720.1%1st Place
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8.06Old Dominion University2.890.1%1st Place
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8.29University of Pennsylvania2.800.1%1st Place
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6.89U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.160.1%1st Place
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11.2University of Virginia2.120.0%1st Place
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11.04SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
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7.31Cornell University3.140.1%1st Place
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11.71Queen's University1.890.0%1st Place
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11.58Christopher Newport University1.890.0%1st Place
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13.92Washington College1.260.0%1st Place
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14.36Stevens Institute of Technology1.150.0%1st Place
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15.48Hampton University0.690.0%1st Place
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7.61Fordham University2.950.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam McCarthy | 8.9% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Parker Loftus | 7.4% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Sean Segerblom | 14.1% | 13.6% | 15.0% | 10.8% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hector Guzman | 10.8% | 11.3% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Jensen McTighe | 3.4% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 1.5% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Jack Elkin | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Carrson Pearce | 7.8% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Colin Suvak | 3.4% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 10.6% | 7.4% | 3.2% |
| John Lawless | 3.7% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 11.1% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 5.9% | 3.6% |
| Clark Uhl | 8.1% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Scott Gittens | 2.5% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 12.1% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 4.9% |
| Spencer Charney | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 11.4% | 12.2% | 8.4% | 4.3% |
| Paul Hart | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 13.6% | 18.5% | 17.7% |
| Andrew O'Brien | 1.1% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 10.4% | 12.6% | 18.6% | 22.9% |
| Elisabeth Kuester | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 10.0% | 18.4% | 40.9% |
| Eduardo Mintzias | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.