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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University2.72+7.81vs Predicted
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2University of South Florida2.25+8.75vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+3.71vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University2.89+3.91vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy3.30+1.42vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+0.13vs Predicted
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7Fordham University2.95+0.73vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University3.81-3.26vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania2.80-0.75vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.16-2.80vs Predicted
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11Cornell University3.14-3.84vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College2.14-0.74vs Predicted
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13Christopher Newport University1.89-1.37vs Predicted
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14Hampton University0.69+1.23vs Predicted
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15Queen's University1.89-3.23vs Predicted
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16Washington College1.26-1.97vs Predicted
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17University of Virginia2.12-5.87vs Predicted
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18Stevens Institute of Technology1.15-3.87vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.81George Washington University2.720.1%1st Place
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10.75University of South Florida2.250.0%1st Place
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6.71St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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7.91Old Dominion University2.890.1%1st Place
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6.42U. S. Naval Academy3.300.1%1st Place
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6.13Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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7.73Fordham University2.950.1%1st Place
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4.74Georgetown University3.810.2%1st Place
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8.25University of Pennsylvania2.800.1%1st Place
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7.2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.160.1%1st Place
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7.16Cornell University3.140.1%1st Place
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11.26SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
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11.63Christopher Newport University1.890.0%1st Place
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15.23Hampton University0.690.0%1st Place
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11.77Queen's University1.890.0%1st Place
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14.03Washington College1.260.0%1st Place
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11.13University of Virginia2.120.0%1st Place
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14.13Stevens Institute of Technology1.150.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Sheerin | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Jensen McTighe | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 4.1% | 2.4% |
| Liam McCarthy | 8.7% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Jack Elkin | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Parker Loftus | 10.6% | 10.6% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Hector Guzman | 9.9% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Eduardo Mintzias | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Sean Segerblom | 15.1% | 16.3% | 12.2% | 11.5% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Carrson Pearce | 8.6% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Clark Uhl | 7.5% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| John Lawless | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 6.6% | 4.6% |
| Spencer Charney | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 11.8% | 9.3% | 5.7% |
| Elisabeth Kuester | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 10.1% | 17.7% | 38.0% |
| Scott Gittens | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 4.9% |
| Paul Hart | 1.5% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 10.7% | 12.3% | 19.0% | 18.9% |
| Colin Suvak | 3.3% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 11.0% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 3.6% |
| Andrew O'Brien | 1.5% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 10.6% | 12.3% | 18.9% | 20.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.