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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+5.99vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy3.30+4.85vs Predicted
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3Fordham University2.95+5.15vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University3.81+0.93vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+1.27vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.16+1.19vs Predicted
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7Stevens Institute of Technology1.15+7.54vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University2.89+0.14vs Predicted
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9Hampton University2.26+1.78vs Predicted
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10University of South Florida2.25+1.07vs Predicted
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11George Washington University2.72-1.87vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University1.89+0.49vs Predicted
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13University of Virginia2.12-1.86vs Predicted
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14Washington College1.26+0.04vs Predicted
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15Queen's University1.89-2.83vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College2.14-4.72vs Predicted
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17University of Pennsylvania2.80-8.24vs Predicted
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18Cornell University3.14-10.92vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.99St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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6.85U. S. Naval Academy3.300.1%1st Place
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8.15Fordham University2.950.1%1st Place
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4.93Georgetown University3.810.2%1st Place
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6.27Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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7.19U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.160.1%1st Place
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14.54Stevens Institute of Technology1.150.0%1st Place
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8.14Old Dominion University2.890.1%1st Place
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10.78Hampton University2.260.0%1st Place
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11.07University of South Florida2.250.0%1st Place
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9.13George Washington University2.720.1%1st Place
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12.49Christopher Newport University1.890.0%1st Place
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11.14University of Virginia2.120.0%1st Place
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14.04Washington College1.260.0%1st Place
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12.17Queen's University1.890.0%1st Place
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11.28SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
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8.76University of Pennsylvania2.800.1%1st Place
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7.08Cornell University3.140.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam McCarthy | 8.0% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Parker Loftus | 7.7% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Eduardo Mintzias | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Sean Segerblom | 15.4% | 14.3% | 14.2% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hector Guzman | 9.8% | 12.9% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Carrson Pearce | 8.2% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Andrew O'Brien | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 7.3% | 10.3% | 17.3% | 32.2% |
| Jack Elkin | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Luca Taglialegne | 3.0% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 6.4% | 3.0% |
| Jensen McTighe | 3.9% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 4.3% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 6.3% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 1.8% |
| Spencer Charney | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 11.4% | 12.2% | 12.0% |
| Colin Suvak | 3.6% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 3.8% |
| Paul Hart | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 11.4% | 14.6% | 26.8% |
| Scott Gittens | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 10.6% | 12.2% | 8.9% |
| John Lawless | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 5.5% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| Clark Uhl | 7.5% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.