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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.30+5.84vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.80+6.85vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College2.14+8.49vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+2.29vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+1.72vs Predicted
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6Cornell University3.14+1.27vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University3.81-2.02vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University2.89+0.14vs Predicted
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9Fordham University2.95-1.08vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.16-2.59vs Predicted
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11Queen's University1.89+1.29vs Predicted
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12University of South Florida2.25-0.82vs Predicted
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13Hampton University2.26-2.41vs Predicted
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14George Washington University2.72-5.31vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University1.89-2.88vs Predicted
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16University of Virginia2.12-4.66vs Predicted
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17Washington College1.26-2.58vs Predicted
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18Stevens Institute of Technology1.15-3.54vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.84U. S. Naval Academy3.300.1%1st Place
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8.85University of Pennsylvania2.800.0%1st Place
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11.49SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
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6.29Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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6.72St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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7.27Cornell University3.140.1%1st Place
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4.98Georgetown University3.810.1%1st Place
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8.14Old Dominion University2.890.1%1st Place
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7.92Fordham University2.950.1%1st Place
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7.41U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.160.1%1st Place
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12.29Queen's University1.890.0%1st Place
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11.18University of South Florida2.250.0%1st Place
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10.59Hampton University2.260.0%1st Place
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8.69George Washington University2.720.1%1st Place
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12.12Christopher Newport University1.890.0%1st Place
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11.34University of Virginia2.120.0%1st Place
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14.42Washington College1.260.0%1st Place
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14.46Stevens Institute of Technology1.150.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Loftus | 8.2% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 0.6% |
| John Lawless | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 11.1% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 5.2% |
| Hector Guzman | 10.3% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| Liam McCarthy | 9.5% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Clark Uhl | 8.2% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Sean Segerblom | 14.4% | 14.8% | 11.9% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Jack Elkin | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Eduardo Mintzias | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Carrson Pearce | 8.4% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Scott Gittens | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 11.3% | 13.0% | 9.5% |
| Jensen McTighe | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 7.1% | 5.2% |
| Luca Taglialegne | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 3.2% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| Spencer Charney | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 11.2% | 9.9% | 9.8% |
| Colin Suvak | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 5.9% |
| Paul Hart | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 8.1% | 10.9% | 18.2% | 28.7% |
| Andrew O'Brien | 1.7% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 11.1% | 16.9% | 29.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.