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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+5.95vs Predicted
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2Cornell University3.14+5.48vs Predicted
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3George Washington University2.72+6.24vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University2.89+4.14vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.16+2.15vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+0.33vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania2.80+1.64vs Predicted
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8Hampton University2.26+2.71vs Predicted
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9University of South Florida2.25+1.79vs Predicted
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10Georgetown University3.81-4.88vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy3.30-4.25vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College2.14-0.43vs Predicted
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13University of Virginia2.12-1.82vs Predicted
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14Queen's University1.89-2.16vs Predicted
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15Fordham University2.95-7.08vs Predicted
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16Washington College1.26-1.65vs Predicted
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17Christopher Newport University1.89-4.70vs Predicted
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18Stevens Institute of Technology1.15-3.46vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.95St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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7.48Cornell University3.140.1%1st Place
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9.24George Washington University2.720.0%1st Place
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8.14Old Dominion University2.890.1%1st Place
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7.15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.160.1%1st Place
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6.33Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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8.64University of Pennsylvania2.800.1%1st Place
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10.71Hampton University2.260.0%1st Place
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10.79University of South Florida2.250.0%1st Place
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5.12Georgetown University3.810.1%1st Place
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6.75U. S. Naval Academy3.300.1%1st Place
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11.57SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
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11.18University of Virginia2.120.0%1st Place
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11.84Queen's University1.890.0%1st Place
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7.92Fordham University2.950.1%1st Place
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14.35Washington College1.260.0%1st Place
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12.3Christopher Newport University1.890.0%1st Place
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14.54Stevens Institute of Technology1.150.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam McCarthy | 8.3% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Clark Uhl | 5.8% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| Jack Elkin | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Carrson Pearce | 8.3% | 10.1% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Hector Guzman | 9.7% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 10.9% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.1% |
| Luca Taglialegne | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 10.2% | 6.2% | 4.0% |
| Jensen McTighe | 3.3% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 3.3% |
| Sean Segerblom | 14.7% | 12.8% | 10.1% | 12.7% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Parker Loftus | 9.6% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| John Lawless | 2.7% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 7.1% |
| Colin Suvak | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 5.7% |
| Scott Gittens | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 8.3% |
| Eduardo Mintzias | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.6% |
| Paul Hart | 1.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 18.0% | 27.0% |
| Spencer Charney | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 12.3% | 9.8% |
| Andrew O'Brien | 1.8% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 10.8% | 18.3% | 30.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.