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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+5.37vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University3.81+2.86vs Predicted
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3George Washington University2.72+5.94vs Predicted
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4Hampton University2.26+6.34vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.16+1.97vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+0.62vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University2.89+1.05vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College1.69+4.52vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania2.80-0.64vs Predicted
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10Fordham University2.95-1.95vs Predicted
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11University of South Florida2.25-0.29vs Predicted
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12U. S. Naval Academy3.30-5.22vs Predicted
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13Queen's University1.89-1.28vs Predicted
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14Stevens Institute of Technology1.15+0.12vs Predicted
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15Cornell University3.14-8.00vs Predicted
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16University of Virginia2.12-4.86vs Predicted
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17Christopher Newport University1.11-2.43vs Predicted
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18Washington College1.26-4.12vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.37Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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4.86Georgetown University3.810.1%1st Place
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8.94George Washington University2.720.0%1st Place
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10.34Hampton University2.260.0%1st Place
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6.97U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.160.1%1st Place
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6.62St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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8.05Old Dominion University2.890.1%1st Place
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12.52SUNY Maritime College1.690.0%1st Place
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8.36University of Pennsylvania2.800.0%1st Place
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8.05Fordham University2.950.1%1st Place
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10.71University of South Florida2.250.0%1st Place
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6.78U. S. Naval Academy3.300.1%1st Place
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11.72Queen's University1.890.0%1st Place
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14.12Stevens Institute of Technology1.150.0%1st Place
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7.0Cornell University3.140.1%1st Place
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11.14University of Virginia2.120.0%1st Place
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14.57Christopher Newport University1.110.0%1st Place
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13.88Washington College1.260.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hector Guzman | 9.8% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Sean Segerblom | 13.6% | 14.0% | 14.2% | 11.8% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| Luca Taglialegne | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 3.1% |
| Carrson Pearce | 8.2% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Liam McCarthy | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jack Elkin | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Hunter Kahler | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 12.6% | 13.3% | 9.6% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| Eduardo Mintzias | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 8.4% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Jensen McTighe | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 2.8% |
| Parker Loftus | 9.6% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Scott Gittens | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 8.3% | 6.9% |
| Andrew O'Brien | 1.5% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 11.3% | 17.9% | 23.1% |
| Clark Uhl | 8.3% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Colin Suvak | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 4.3% |
| Daniel Hodges | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 11.2% | 19.2% | 27.8% |
| Paul Hart | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 10.0% | 13.6% | 15.1% | 20.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.