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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+5.87vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+4.40vs Predicted
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3Cornell University3.14+4.46vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.16+3.03vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University3.81-0.15vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania2.80+2.55vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University2.89+1.18vs Predicted
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8Fordham University2.95-0.14vs Predicted
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9University of Virginia2.12+2.20vs Predicted
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10Stevens Institute of Technology1.15+4.67vs Predicted
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11University of South Florida2.25-0.14vs Predicted
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12U. S. Naval Academy3.30-5.16vs Predicted
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13Hampton University2.26-2.50vs Predicted
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14Queen's University1.89-2.21vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University1.89-2.95vs Predicted
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16George Washington University2.72-7.05vs Predicted
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17Washington College1.26-2.68vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College1.69-5.37vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.87St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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6.4Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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7.46Cornell University3.140.1%1st Place
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7.03U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.160.1%1st Place
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4.85Georgetown University3.810.2%1st Place
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8.55University of Pennsylvania2.800.1%1st Place
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8.18Old Dominion University2.890.1%1st Place
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7.86Fordham University2.950.1%1st Place
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11.2University of Virginia2.120.0%1st Place
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14.67Stevens Institute of Technology1.150.0%1st Place
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10.86University of South Florida2.250.0%1st Place
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6.84U. S. Naval Academy3.300.1%1st Place
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10.5Hampton University2.260.0%1st Place
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11.79Queen's University1.890.0%1st Place
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12.05Christopher Newport University1.890.0%1st Place
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8.95George Washington University2.720.0%1st Place
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14.32Washington College1.260.0%1st Place
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12.63SUNY Maritime College1.690.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam McCarthy | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Hector Guzman | 8.9% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Clark Uhl | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Carrson Pearce | 8.5% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Sean Segerblom | 16.9% | 15.2% | 12.3% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 5.4% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 1.9% | 1.0% |
| Jack Elkin | 5.8% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Eduardo Mintzias | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Colin Suvak | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 6.7% | 3.7% |
| Andrew O'Brien | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 17.8% | 32.4% |
| Jensen McTighe | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 4.5% |
| Parker Loftus | 9.0% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Luca Taglialegne | 3.7% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 3.4% |
| Scott Gittens | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 11.5% | 11.0% | 6.8% |
| Spencer Charney | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 7.8% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 0.9% |
| Paul Hart | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 9.0% | 11.0% | 17.5% | 27.1% |
| Hunter Kahler | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 10.6% | 12.7% | 11.9% | 11.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.