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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+5.46vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.80+6.80vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+3.84vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.16+3.00vs Predicted
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5Hampton University2.26+5.55vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy3.30+0.63vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University2.89+1.18vs Predicted
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8Cornell University3.14-0.91vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University3.81-4.16vs Predicted
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10Christopher Newport University1.89+2.28vs Predicted
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11Fordham University2.95-2.93vs Predicted
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12George Washington University2.72-2.82vs Predicted
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13University of Virginia2.12-1.93vs Predicted
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14Washington College1.26-0.06vs Predicted
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15Queen's University1.89-2.95vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College1.69-3.08vs Predicted
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17Stevens Institute of Technology1.15-2.40vs Predicted
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18University of South Florida2.25-7.53vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.46Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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8.8University of Pennsylvania2.800.0%1st Place
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6.84St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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7.0U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.160.1%1st Place
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10.55Hampton University2.260.0%1st Place
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6.63U. S. Naval Academy3.300.1%1st Place
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8.18Old Dominion University2.890.1%1st Place
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7.09Cornell University3.140.1%1st Place
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4.84Georgetown University3.810.2%1st Place
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12.28Christopher Newport University1.890.0%1st Place
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8.07Fordham University2.950.1%1st Place
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9.18George Washington University2.720.0%1st Place
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11.07University of Virginia2.120.0%1st Place
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13.94Washington College1.260.0%1st Place
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12.05Queen's University1.890.0%1st Place
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12.92SUNY Maritime College1.690.0%1st Place
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14.6Stevens Institute of Technology1.150.0%1st Place
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10.47University of South Florida2.250.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hector Guzman | 9.3% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Liam McCarthy | 8.6% | 6.5% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Carrson Pearce | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Luca Taglialegne | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 3.4% |
| Parker Loftus | 9.1% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Jack Elkin | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.7% |
| Clark Uhl | 7.7% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Sean Segerblom | 15.5% | 14.4% | 12.0% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Spencer Charney | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 11.5% | 12.5% | 8.2% |
| Eduardo Mintzias | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 1.7% |
| Colin Suvak | 3.4% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 4.8% |
| Paul Hart | 1.8% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 11.6% | 17.5% | 23.5% |
| Scott Gittens | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 11.2% | 7.6% |
| Hunter Kahler | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 12.1% | 13.5% | 13.4% |
| Andrew O'Brien | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 17.4% | 31.5% |
| Jensen McTighe | 3.1% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 4.6% | 3.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.