Race 1A

mcsa-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

69.2%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Jonathan Bailey 18.5% 17.6% 14.0% 15.1% 12.7% 7.6% 6.8% 4.2% 1.9% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Jenna Probst 17.2% 16.7% 15.8% 13.1% 11.4% 9.8% 7.1% 5.2% 1.9% 1.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Kevin Gallagher 6.7% 7.7% 9.7% 11.3% 12.7% 10.0% 11.1% 11.5% 8.8% 6.6% 3.3% 0.5% 0.1%
Mark Davies 16.5% 15.3% 13.7% 15.2% 9.7% 10.5% 9.4% 4.7% 3.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Liam Walz 8.6% 7.6% 9.4% 9.3% 8.7% 12.4% 10.4% 11.2% 10.8% 7.7% 3.0% 0.8% 0.1%
Justin Falconer 7.3% 6.7% 8.7% 7.9% 9.5% 11.2% 11.0% 13.1% 9.4% 9.6% 4.6% 1.0% 0.0%
Carl Eaton 12.4% 12.3% 10.9% 10.5% 12.2% 12.6% 9.8% 8.0% 6.6% 3.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Brian Pribe 1.7% 2.7% 2.0% 2.6% 3.9% 3.1% 4.2% 8.7% 11.2% 15.5% 24.8% 16.4% 3.2%
Tye Rubin 4.3% 6.0% 5.2% 6.5% 7.1% 8.6% 11.4% 11.4% 13.2% 13.6% 9.5% 2.7% 0.5%
Karl Wagerson 1.4% 2.3% 3.2% 1.8% 3.0% 4.0% 5.1% 5.7% 12.3% 17.1% 22.9% 15.9% 5.3%
Rishab Nayar 4.5% 4.4% 6.8% 5.2% 8.1% 7.6% 11.6% 12.2% 14.3% 13.3% 8.8% 2.7% 0.5%
David Resnick 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 1.4% 0.7% 1.9% 1.3% 3.3% 4.7% 6.0% 16.2% 39.4% 23.6%
Justin Edick 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 1.9% 3.4% 4.5% 20.1% 66.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.