Race 2A

mcsa-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

30.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Brian Pribe 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 2.4% 2.3% 3.7% 5.6% 8.1% 10.7% 17.2% 25.0% 16.0% 3.0%
Carl Eaton 11.3% 11.3% 11.1% 13.7% 12.1% 10.4% 9.6% 8.9% 5.9% 3.8% 1.5% 0.4% 0.0%
Liam Walz 6.0% 8.2% 9.7% 8.9% 9.7% 12.1% 12.6% 11.8% 10.4% 6.4% 3.2% 0.9% 0.1%
Tye Rubin 3.9% 5.7% 5.5% 7.0% 7.2% 10.2% 9.5% 12.7% 13.3% 14.6% 7.7% 2.4% 0.3%
Jonathan Bailey 20.6% 17.2% 14.8% 12.9% 12.0% 9.2% 5.3% 4.3% 2.2% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Jenna Probst 18.4% 17.1% 15.9% 12.8% 11.5% 8.3% 7.9% 3.9% 2.4% 1.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Mark Davies 17.1% 15.1% 16.1% 12.6% 11.5% 9.1% 8.5% 5.1% 3.0% 1.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Kevin Gallagher 8.1% 9.1% 8.8% 10.8% 10.8% 12.0% 10.8% 9.9% 10.0% 5.6% 3.3% 0.8% 0.0%
Justin Falconer 6.4% 7.1% 7.1% 6.9% 10.6% 11.2% 12.1% 11.4% 11.6% 8.5% 5.0% 2.0% 0.1%
Karl Wagerson 1.5% 2.2% 2.6% 3.2% 3.3% 3.2% 4.5% 7.2% 10.6% 16.0% 25.2% 15.5% 5.0%
Rishab Nayar 4.3% 4.4% 4.9% 7.4% 7.9% 8.5% 11.1% 12.6% 13.7% 13.3% 8.2% 3.4% 0.3%
David Resnick 0.5% 0.5% 0.8% 1.1% 1.0% 1.8% 1.7% 2.9% 4.4% 7.5% 14.9% 38.8% 24.1%
Justin Edick 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.8% 1.2% 1.8% 2.8% 5.2% 19.7% 67.1%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.