Race 3A

mcsa-fall

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Jonathan Bailey 18.4% 14.9% 16.5% 11.5% 12.5% 10.8% 7.7% 3.7% 2.5% 1.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Justin Falconer 6.6% 4.7% 7.7% 8.9% 8.3% 10.7% 11.9% 14.0% 11.7% 9.0% 4.7% 1.7% 0.1%
Liam Walz 5.8% 7.9% 8.3% 10.1% 9.2% 11.0% 12.4% 13.0% 10.2% 8.0% 3.4% 0.6% 0.1%
Tye Rubin 4.2% 4.7% 5.9% 5.8% 7.3% 9.5% 9.1% 12.4% 16.1% 12.6% 10.1% 2.1% 0.2%
Jenna Probst 17.7% 17.0% 12.3% 13.7% 12.1% 10.7% 7.2% 5.1% 2.5% 1.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Carl Eaton 10.5% 11.2% 11.8% 11.4% 11.6% 11.3% 11.8% 8.6% 5.7% 4.6% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Ryder Easterlin 15.0% 15.8% 13.3% 11.7% 12.8% 10.3% 9.1% 6.2% 4.1% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Brian Pribe 1.4% 2.2% 2.5% 2.7% 3.1% 2.5% 4.3% 7.1% 11.6% 18.0% 25.8% 15.8% 3.0%
Christian Cyrul 14.4% 15.0% 11.9% 14.6% 12.4% 10.3% 9.1% 6.3% 4.1% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Karl Wagerson 1.3% 2.0% 2.9% 2.7% 2.6% 3.4% 4.8% 6.7% 10.2% 19.4% 22.7% 16.1% 5.2%
Rishab Nayar 4.2% 3.7% 5.8% 5.8% 7.6% 8.2% 9.9% 13.5% 14.2% 13.9% 9.8% 2.9% 0.5%
Joshua Spano 0.2% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.4% 0.9% 2.1% 2.2% 5.1% 6.0% 15.8% 39.2% 25.7%
Justin Edick 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.6% 1.2% 2.0% 2.9% 5.3% 21.3% 65.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.