Race 11A

peter-wenner-rainbow-invite

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Adam Pokras 19.4% 16.9% 14.7% 12.9% 12.6% 9.4% 6.2% 3.9% 2.1% 1.5% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Alicia Bernhard 2.8% 3.0% 3.0% 4.1% 5.1% 6.7% 5.4% 8.9% 11.3% 11.6% 11.1% 17.1% 9.9%
Kelsey Rupp 5.1% 5.9% 8.1% 8.1% 9.9% 9.8% 11.6% 8.9% 10.5% 9.7% 6.2% 4.2% 2.0%
Jack Porter 8.4% 7.2% 9.6% 10.9% 10.0% 10.0% 11.3% 9.5% 8.7% 7.1% 5.1% 1.4% 0.8%
William Peterson 22.2% 20.9% 15.8% 12.3% 9.6% 7.6% 4.8% 3.9% 2.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Stephen Lue 10.7% 12.1% 11.8% 11.3% 12.2% 11.9% 9.3% 7.6% 5.6% 3.4% 3.0% 0.9% 0.2%
Erika Vranizan 3.6% 4.0% 3.9% 6.0% 5.2% 5.1% 7.6% 8.3% 9.9% 12.7% 12.0% 12.9% 8.8%
Hannah Tuson-Turner 13.7% 13.7% 15.1% 10.8% 11.6% 13.2% 9.2% 5.6% 3.3% 2.4% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1%
John Olson 2.4% 3.1% 2.4% 4.6% 3.7% 3.3% 5.6% 7.8% 8.8% 10.9% 14.4% 16.1% 16.9%
Bryan Rust 3.8% 4.5% 3.7% 5.2% 5.1% 7.7% 7.7% 10.3% 11.6% 10.3% 12.0% 10.2% 7.9%
Matt Wenner 3.8% 5.1% 7.1% 7.1% 8.0% 8.1% 11.2% 11.6% 9.3% 10.1% 10.0% 4.7% 3.9%
Thomas Maher 2.6% 2.7% 3.2% 4.8% 4.2% 4.4% 6.8% 8.5% 10.5% 10.7% 12.9% 14.9% 13.8%
Connor Bescos 1.5% 0.9% 1.6% 1.9% 2.8% 2.8% 3.3% 5.2% 6.4% 9.1% 12.1% 16.7% 35.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.