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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Northeastern University1.59+10.18vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island1.80+8.00vs Predicted
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3Yale University2.29+3.18vs Predicted
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4Harvard University2.45+1.85vs Predicted
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5Fordham University1.98+3.03vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University2.09+1.68vs Predicted
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7Brown University2.22+1.41vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College2.06-1.16vs Predicted
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9George Washington University1.82-1.39vs Predicted
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10Brown University1.85-0.50vs Predicted
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11Tufts University1.51-0.92vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College1.09-0.99vs Predicted
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13Boston University0.97-2.76vs Predicted
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14Stanford University2.72-8.80vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont1.06-4.30vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.05-2.89vs Predicted
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17Salve Regina University0.46-5.61vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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11.18Northeastern University1.593.1%1st Place
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10.0University of Rhode Island1.804.4%1st Place
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6.18Yale University2.2910.4%1st Place
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5.85Harvard University2.4512.2%1st Place
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8.03Fordham University1.985.3%1st Place
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7.68Roger Williams University2.096.0%1st Place
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8.41Brown University2.226.4%1st Place
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6.84Bowdoin College2.068.2%1st Place
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7.61George Washington University1.826.3%1st Place
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9.5Brown University1.854.9%1st Place
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10.08Tufts University1.513.9%1st Place
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11.01Connecticut College1.092.9%1st Place
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10.24Boston University0.974.3%1st Place
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5.2Stanford University2.7213.1%1st Place
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10.7University of Vermont1.063.9%1st Place
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13.11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.051.6%1st Place
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11.39Salve Regina University0.463.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Winkelman | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 11.3% | 10.3% | 10.5% |
| Declan Botwinick | 4.4% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 5.3% |
| Morgan Pinckney | 10.4% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Robby Meek | 12.2% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Jacob Zils | 5.3% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 2.1% |
| Oliver Stokke | 6.0% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.0% |
| Mason Stang | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 1.6% |
| Sam Bonauto | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 10.5% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Tyler Wood | 6.3% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Laura Hamilton | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 3.6% |
| Clark Morris | 3.9% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.6% |
| Duncan Craine | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 9.6% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 4.3% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 5.9% |
| Lucas Woodworth | 13.1% | 11.6% | 12.7% | 12.2% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ethan Burt | 3.9% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 9.9% |
| Lewis Bragg | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 14.0% | 30.4% |
| Emil Tullberg | 3.0% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 12.7% | 12.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.