Race 6A

mcsa-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Jenna Probst 18.1% 15.7% 15.5% 12.8% 12.9% 10.3% 5.9% 5.0% 2.1% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Jonathan Bailey 18.8% 17.7% 15.4% 13.1% 11.3% 8.3% 8.1% 3.7% 2.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Tye Rubin 3.4% 5.1% 5.6% 7.1% 6.8% 10.4% 10.5% 12.9% 14.3% 12.6% 8.7% 2.4% 0.2%
Kevin Gallagher 7.3% 8.7% 9.1% 10.3% 9.8% 10.6% 12.4% 11.6% 8.6% 7.6% 3.5% 0.4% 0.1%
Liam Walz 8.1% 8.0% 8.7% 11.9% 7.3% 10.2% 12.1% 12.8% 10.7% 5.3% 3.7% 1.1% 0.1%
Mark Davies 16.6% 16.5% 16.1% 11.9% 11.5% 10.0% 7.8% 4.6% 3.2% 1.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Karl Wagerson 2.1% 2.2% 2.5% 2.8% 4.2% 4.6% 4.5% 5.9% 10.0% 17.0% 22.2% 18.4% 3.6%
Justin Falconer 7.1% 7.3% 5.8% 9.2% 10.3% 11.1% 11.1% 13.0% 11.9% 8.6% 3.8% 0.6% 0.2%
Brian Pribe 1.6% 2.7% 2.3% 2.4% 3.9% 3.5% 4.5% 6.7% 9.6% 17.7% 24.3% 17.9% 2.9%
Carl Eaton 11.9% 12.0% 11.4% 11.1% 12.1% 10.7% 11.1% 8.1% 6.0% 4.1% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Rishab Nayar 4.2% 3.5% 6.7% 6.0% 8.4% 8.4% 9.7% 12.9% 15.1% 13.1% 8.4% 3.1% 0.5%
Justin Edick 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.7% 0.8% 1.4% 2.9% 6.6% 17.6% 68.1%
David Resnick 0.7% 0.4% 0.7% 0.8% 1.1% 1.5% 1.6% 2.0% 4.6% 7.6% 16.7% 38.1% 24.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.