Race 1B

mcsa-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Samuel Bartel 38.5% 27.2% 15.8% 9.4% 4.1% 2.8% 1.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Connor Goulet 14.7% 17.1% 17.7% 13.8% 11.9% 11.1% 6.0% 3.3% 2.8% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Mehmet Karatoprak 4.2% 6.6% 8.1% 10.0% 10.9% 11.3% 12.9% 12.5% 9.2% 8.4% 4.3% 1.2% 0.4%
Clara Brown 3.3% 3.1% 6.4% 6.9% 9.0% 9.1% 9.3% 11.7% 12.2% 12.3% 10.8% 4.4% 1.5%
Lillian Nemeth 11.5% 15.3% 14.3% 12.5% 12.0% 12.2% 10.1% 5.5% 4.1% 1.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0%
Leah Peluchiwski 6.7% 7.4% 8.7% 9.8% 11.1% 12.3% 12.2% 9.3% 10.1% 6.6% 4.3% 1.2% 0.3%
John Lowry 3.7% 3.8% 3.4% 5.9% 6.3% 6.5% 7.5% 10.8% 14.4% 12.8% 13.0% 8.7% 3.2%
McKenzie Frame 2.4% 3.7% 3.8% 4.1% 5.0% 6.4% 8.2% 11.0% 12.1% 15.0% 15.1% 8.9% 4.3%
Sarah Corder 1.1% 1.1% 2.4% 1.8% 3.7% 3.1% 3.6% 4.7% 7.2% 11.6% 16.8% 24.0% 18.9%
Solomon Dworsky 8.2% 7.4% 9.1% 11.7% 12.7% 11.4% 10.3% 10.8% 7.1% 6.9% 2.9% 1.3% 0.2%
Katie Carlson 4.4% 6.2% 8.4% 10.5% 10.0% 10.0% 11.8% 11.9% 11.1% 7.6% 5.3% 2.2% 0.6%
Jacob Turenne 0.6% 0.7% 1.4% 2.4% 1.8% 2.3% 4.4% 5.0% 5.4% 9.1% 14.4% 25.1% 27.4%
Andrew Barce 0.7% 0.4% 0.5% 1.2% 1.5% 1.5% 2.2% 3.2% 3.9% 7.3% 11.8% 22.6% 43.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.