Race 2B

mcsa-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

61.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Samuel Bartel 40.1% 24.7% 16.6% 9.5% 4.3% 3.1% 1.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lillian Nemeth 12.0% 12.0% 15.0% 14.1% 14.8% 10.0% 8.6% 6.8% 3.7% 1.7% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1%
Connor Goulet 13.8% 18.7% 16.3% 12.9% 14.3% 11.0% 5.6% 3.6% 2.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Solomon Dworsky 6.2% 8.7% 9.8% 11.6% 12.5% 9.5% 12.6% 9.6% 9.6% 5.7% 2.7% 1.2% 0.3%
Clara Brown 4.3% 3.9% 5.7% 8.1% 8.0% 8.4% 10.5% 11.6% 12.5% 12.0% 9.5% 4.5% 1.0%
Mehmet Karatoprak 5.6% 8.0% 8.5% 9.6% 10.4% 12.4% 11.9% 9.8% 8.8% 7.6% 5.5% 1.6% 0.3%
Katie Carlson 6.3% 5.7% 8.1% 8.5% 7.8% 11.2% 11.9% 11.3% 12.0% 9.6% 5.1% 2.1% 0.4%
Leah Peluchiwski 5.4% 9.0% 8.6% 9.1% 10.4% 12.6% 12.9% 10.8% 9.6% 6.2% 3.3% 1.8% 0.3%
McKenzie Frame 2.2% 3.3% 3.7% 5.3% 4.7% 6.0% 6.4% 11.0% 12.8% 15.5% 13.8% 10.9% 4.4%
Jacob Turenne 0.5% 1.5% 1.0% 2.4% 2.9% 2.0% 3.3% 5.0% 5.3% 10.2% 15.4% 24.7% 25.8%
John Lowry 2.1% 3.3% 4.5% 6.2% 6.3% 7.7% 8.3% 11.6% 12.3% 13.5% 13.4% 7.9% 2.9%
Sarah Corder 0.8% 0.9% 1.5% 1.7% 2.2% 3.9% 5.3% 5.6% 6.1% 10.3% 17.9% 23.1% 20.7%
Andrew Barce 0.7% 0.3% 0.7% 1.0% 1.4% 2.2% 1.6% 2.7% 4.5% 7.1% 12.1% 21.9% 43.8%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.