Race 6B

mcsa-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

30.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Lillian Nemeth 11.2% 14.0% 14.7% 12.3% 14.5% 12.0% 9.1% 6.6% 2.5% 2.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
Samuel Bartel 41.2% 25.8% 14.3% 9.8% 5.1% 1.9% 1.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Clara Brown 2.9% 3.9% 4.2% 8.5% 8.3% 9.8% 9.7% 10.6% 12.7% 13.6% 9.9% 3.7% 2.2%
Leah Peluchiwski 4.8% 7.5% 9.8% 11.5% 8.4% 11.3% 14.3% 10.0% 9.7% 7.5% 3.4% 1.5% 0.3%
McKenzie Frame 2.3% 3.8% 3.4% 4.9% 6.4% 6.7% 8.4% 8.3% 12.5% 15.5% 14.0% 10.4% 3.4%
Connor Goulet 15.9% 16.7% 17.2% 14.0% 12.4% 10.6% 5.7% 3.6% 2.5% 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Katie Carlson 5.7% 5.5% 9.9% 7.1% 8.3% 11.4% 10.4% 13.1% 10.9% 9.8% 4.9% 2.5% 0.5%
Solomon Dworsky 6.8% 8.7% 9.2% 11.6% 12.2% 10.0% 13.8% 10.8% 7.8% 4.6% 3.7% 0.8% 0.0%
Jacob Turenne 0.8% 1.3% 1.8% 1.5% 2.6% 3.3% 2.5% 5.0% 5.6% 8.3% 15.9% 24.0% 27.4%
Mehmet Karatoprak 5.3% 7.9% 8.5% 9.7% 11.6% 11.0% 10.9% 11.1% 10.2% 6.2% 4.3% 2.8% 0.5%
John Lowry 1.8% 3.0% 5.2% 5.8% 6.6% 7.6% 8.0% 12.0% 12.1% 13.2% 13.6% 7.4% 3.7%
Andrew Barce 0.5% 0.8% 0.5% 1.0% 1.6% 1.2% 2.6% 3.2% 4.8% 6.4% 11.3% 22.6% 43.5%
Sarah Corder 0.8% 1.1% 1.3% 2.3% 2.0% 3.2% 3.4% 5.4% 8.4% 11.3% 18.2% 24.1% 18.5%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.