Race 8B

mcsa-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Leah Peluchiwski 5.3% 6.4% 7.9% 11.9% 8.8% 9.9% 9.8% 11.9% 10.9% 8.2% 6.0% 2.4% 0.6%
Katie Carlson 4.9% 5.4% 7.4% 6.6% 9.3% 9.2% 11.2% 10.2% 11.6% 10.6% 8.0% 4.0% 1.6%
Samuel Bartel 38.4% 23.5% 16.9% 9.4% 6.2% 3.1% 1.4% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Michael Rivkin 5.1% 5.6% 8.1% 10.6% 9.7% 8.9% 11.0% 9.8% 10.0% 9.9% 6.9% 3.9% 0.5%
Connor Goulet 15.2% 18.6% 14.4% 12.9% 11.6% 9.4% 7.7% 5.1% 2.9% 1.3% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Clara Brown 3.3% 4.6% 4.9% 6.3% 7.3% 7.6% 8.2% 10.7% 11.9% 10.7% 13.5% 8.5% 2.5%
Solomon Dworsky 7.2% 7.4% 10.0% 9.0% 10.2% 12.0% 11.0% 9.7% 8.7% 7.8% 4.1% 2.5% 0.4%
Mehmet Karatoprak 4.6% 7.6% 7.3% 8.2% 10.0% 10.8% 12.5% 10.1% 11.1% 8.6% 6.0% 2.7% 0.5%
Lillian Nemeth 10.2% 13.7% 12.9% 13.2% 13.1% 11.4% 8.3% 7.1% 4.9% 2.9% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1%
McKenzie Frame 2.5% 3.5% 2.9% 3.5% 5.0% 6.6% 6.7% 8.0% 9.0% 13.4% 16.0% 15.2% 7.7%
John Lowry 1.9% 2.3% 4.9% 4.9% 6.0% 6.7% 7.1% 9.4% 10.7% 14.0% 15.6% 11.6% 4.9%
Sarah Corder 0.8% 1.1% 1.7% 2.4% 1.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.9% 5.3% 7.3% 13.2% 28.1% 27.2%
Andrew Barce 0.6% 0.3% 0.7% 1.1% 1.3% 1.4% 1.6% 2.2% 2.9% 5.2% 8.1% 20.6% 54.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.