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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University2.22+6.94vs Predicted
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2Stanford University2.72+2.97vs Predicted
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3Yale University2.29+3.07vs Predicted
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4Northeastern University1.59+6.71vs Predicted
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5Tufts University1.51+4.83vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island1.80+3.64vs Predicted
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7Bowdoin College2.06-0.40vs Predicted
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8Brown University1.85+0.86vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University2.09-1.88vs Predicted
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10Fordham University1.98-2.32vs Predicted
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11Connecticut College1.09-0.41vs Predicted
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12George Washington University0.70-0.19vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont1.06-2.53vs Predicted
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14Salve Regina University0.46-2.64vs Predicted
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15Boston University1.06-4.11vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.05-3.11vs Predicted
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17Harvard University2.45-11.42vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.94Brown University2.226.3%1st Place
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4.97Stanford University2.7216.0%1st Place
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6.07Yale University2.2910.8%1st Place
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10.71Northeastern University1.593.2%1st Place
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9.83Tufts University1.513.5%1st Place
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9.64University of Rhode Island1.804.6%1st Place
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6.6Bowdoin College2.068.9%1st Place
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8.86Brown University1.854.5%1st Place
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7.12Roger Williams University2.098.8%1st Place
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7.68Fordham University1.985.8%1st Place
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10.59Connecticut College1.093.4%1st Place
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11.81George Washington University0.702.0%1st Place
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10.47University of Vermont1.063.4%1st Place
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11.36Salve Regina University0.463.2%1st Place
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10.89Boston University1.063.2%1st Place
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12.89U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.051.4%1st Place
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5.58Harvard University2.4511.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Stang | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 0.9% |
| Lucas Woodworth | 16.0% | 13.3% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Morgan Pinckney | 10.8% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 8.9% |
| Clark Morris | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 5.2% |
| Declan Botwinick | 4.6% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 4.5% |
| Sam Bonauto | 8.9% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Laura Hamilton | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 2.8% |
| Oliver Stokke | 8.8% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Jacob Zils | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| Duncan Craine | 3.4% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 8.1% |
| Tryg van Wyk | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 11.5% | 11.3% | 15.4% |
| Ethan Burt | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 7.3% |
| Emil Tullberg | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 12.2% | 10.8% |
| Max Teo | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 10.1% |
| Lewis Bragg | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 10.5% | 14.9% | 24.2% |
| Robby Meek | 11.2% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 11.6% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.