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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
21
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.73+3.81vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.56+0.90vs Predicted
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3University of Hawaii2.14+3.66vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California1.75+3.89vs Predicted
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5California Poly Maritime Academy2.60+0.14vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley1.66+2.39vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara1.67+1.43vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.61+0.26vs Predicted
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9California State University Monterey Bay-0.52+6.85vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego0.80+1.40vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz-0.09+3.60vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles0.61+0.30vs Predicted
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13University of Washington1.53-4.01vs Predicted
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14University of California at Davis0.13-0.18vs Predicted
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15Western Washington University0.52-2.64vs Predicted
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16Santa Clara University0.21-2.54vs Predicted
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17California State University Monterey Bay-0.52-1.15vs Predicted
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18University of Victoria-0.62-1.87vs Predicted
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19University of California at Irvine-0.09-4.39vs Predicted
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20Arizona State University-1.15-2.54vs Predicted
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21University of Southern California2.18-14.46vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.81University of California at Santa Barbara2.730.1%1st Place
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2.9Stanford University3.560.3%1st Place
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6.66University of Hawaii2.140.1%1st Place
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7.89University of Southern California1.750.0%1st Place
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5.14California Poly Maritime Academy2.600.1%1st Place
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8.39University of California at Berkeley1.660.0%1st Place
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8.43University of California at Santa Barbara1.670.0%1st Place
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8.26Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.610.0%1st Place
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15.85California State University Monterey Bay-0.520.0%1st Place
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11.4University of California at San Diego0.800.0%1st Place
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14.6University of California at Santa Cruz-0.090.0%1st Place
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12.3University of California at Los Angeles0.610.0%1st Place
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8.99University of Washington1.530.0%1st Place
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13.82University of California at Davis0.130.0%1st Place
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12.36Western Washington University0.520.0%1st Place
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13.46Santa Clara University0.210.0%1st Place
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15.85California State University Monterey Bay-0.520.0%1st Place
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16.13University of Victoria-0.620.0%1st Place
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14.61University of California at Irvine-0.090.0%1st Place
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17.46Arizona State University-1.150.0%1st Place
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6.54University of Southern California2.180.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Pierce | 13.4% | 14.5% | 12.4% | 12.9% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Romain Screve | 29.9% | 22.3% | 16.3% | 12.9% | 7.8% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Pacholski | 7.3% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Alexander | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Johannes McElvain | 12.1% | 10.9% | 12.5% | 12.2% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Drake Hayes | 3.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Madeline Kraus | 3.1% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ben Brough | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Liam Patrick | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 14.7% | 17.2% | 13.4% | 0.0% |
| Erika Barth | 1.8% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Julian Weiswasser | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 13.2% | 12.7% | 10.9% | 7.6% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Lenz Lenz | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Erik Skeel | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jayden Potter | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 8.1% | 4.5% | 0.0% |
| Ezekiel Ward | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 0.0% |
| Robbie Culkin | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 11.4% | 11.2% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 3.0% | 0.0% |
| Liam Patrick | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 14.7% | 17.2% | 13.4% | 0.0% |
| Caitlyn Shum | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 12.7% | 17.0% | 19.8% | 0.0% |
| Drake Baldwin | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 12.1% | 11.8% | 7.3% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Theut | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 11.1% | 16.2% | 40.3% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Stefanoni | 6.9% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.