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📊 Prediction Accuracy
28.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
21
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.56+1.94vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara2.73+2.76vs Predicted
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3California Poly Maritime Academy2.60+2.20vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California2.18+2.49vs Predicted
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5University of Washington1.53+3.63vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Barbara1.67+2.22vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego0.80+4.73vs Predicted
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8Western Washington University0.52+4.30vs Predicted
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9University of Southern California1.75-1.19vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.61-1.57vs Predicted
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11University of California at Berkeley1.66-2.64vs Predicted
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12California State University Monterey Bay-0.52+4.05vs Predicted
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13University of Hawaii2.14-6.11vs Predicted
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14University of California at Davis0.13-0.12vs Predicted
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15Santa Clara University0.21-1.59vs Predicted
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16University of California at Los Angeles0.61-3.92vs Predicted
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17University of Victoria-0.60-0.96vs Predicted
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18University of California at Irvine-0.09-3.31vs Predicted
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19California State University Monterey Bay-0.52-2.95vs Predicted
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20Arizona State University-1.15-2.57vs Predicted
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21University of California at Santa Cruz-0.09-6.33vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.94Stanford University3.560.3%1st Place
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4.76University of California at Santa Barbara2.730.1%1st Place
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5.2California Poly Maritime Academy2.600.1%1st Place
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6.49University of Southern California2.180.1%1st Place
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8.63University of Washington1.530.0%1st Place
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8.22University of California at Santa Barbara1.670.0%1st Place
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11.73University of California at San Diego0.800.0%1st Place
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12.3Western Washington University0.520.0%1st Place
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7.81University of Southern California1.750.0%1st Place
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8.43Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.610.0%1st Place
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8.36University of California at Berkeley1.660.1%1st Place
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16.05California State University Monterey Bay-0.520.0%1st Place
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6.89University of Hawaii2.140.1%1st Place
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13.88University of California at Davis0.130.0%1st Place
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13.41Santa Clara University0.210.0%1st Place
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12.08University of California at Los Angeles0.610.0%1st Place
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16.04University of Victoria-0.600.0%1st Place
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14.69University of California at Irvine-0.090.0%1st Place
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16.05California State University Monterey Bay-0.520.0%1st Place
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17.43Arizona State University-1.150.0%1st Place
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14.67University of California at Santa Cruz-0.090.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romain Screve | 30.5% | 22.7% | 14.9% | 12.9% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Pierce | 13.8% | 11.6% | 14.7% | 12.0% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Johannes McElvain | 11.7% | 11.1% | 11.9% | 11.5% | 11.6% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Stefanoni | 6.6% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erik Skeel | 3.6% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Madeline Kraus | 3.9% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Erika Barth | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Ezekiel Ward | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Alexander | 4.4% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ben Brough | 3.5% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Drake Hayes | 5.1% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Liam Patrick | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 11.3% | 13.1% | 18.4% | 17.8% | 0.0% |
| Michael Pacholski | 6.1% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jayden Potter | 0.7% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 11.9% | 10.4% | 8.1% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| Robbie Culkin | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 11.4% | 7.2% | 2.6% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Lenz Lenz | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Lukas Koch | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 13.2% | 17.2% | 17.6% | 0.0% |
| Drake Baldwin | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 11.9% | 11.6% | 11.1% | 7.6% | 0.0% |
| Liam Patrick | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 11.3% | 13.1% | 18.4% | 17.8% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Theut | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 11.7% | 16.3% | 39.4% | 0.0% |
| Julian Weiswasser | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 11.2% | 11.1% | 12.8% | 7.3% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.